PRODUCTION DYNAMICS AND SUPPLY RESPONSE OF MAJOR SEED SPICES IN GUJARAT: IMPLICATIONS OF NATIONAL HORTICULTURE MISSION 2933
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Date
2019-08
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JAU, JUNAGADH
Abstract
India is the ‘spice bowl of the world’ and is also called as the ‘land of spices’
and such is the importance of spices in the country’s economy that if there could be
any correlation between the foreign invasions right from Mughals to the Europeans
with India’s spice production then the correlation coefficient would certainly turn out
to be highly and positively significant. The study was conducted for major seed spice
crops of Gujarat state viz. cumin, coriander, fennel and fenugreek for the study period
of 1994-95 to 2017-18. To capture the impact of National Horticultural Mission on
seed spice sector in the state, the study period was again be classified into: Pre-NHM
Period (1994-95 to 2004-05) and Post-NHM Period (2005- 06 to 2017-18) and
Overall Period (1994-95 to 2017-18). The study area comprised of the top four seed
spice producing districts in Gujarat. The districts were selected on the criterion that
they should together account for at least 50 per cent of the TE gross cropped area of
the individual selected crop in the state.
The secondary data on area, production and yield of seed spices from Gujarat
were collected for 24 years from the year 1994-95 to 2017-2018. It was analyzed
using Compound growth rate, Coefficient of variation, Cuddy Della Vella index,
Additive decomposition model, Linear Nerlovian supply-response model and Log linear Nerlovian lagged adjustment model.Growth rate analysis revealed either lower or similar growth trends in the
study crops during Pre-NHM and Post-NHM period. In most cases, the growth rates
of area were found to be more than that of yield component.
Further, instability indices (CDV) were found to be ranging from 9.43 % to
105.56 % in cumin; 4.07 % to 90.89 % in coriander; 6.01 % to 113.56 % in fennel;
and 10.74 % to 85.68 % in fenugreek.
Growth-Instability analysis also revealed the presence of ‘not desirable’ (low
growth-high instability) and ‘least desirable’ (low growth-low instability) in both area
and yield components.
Decomposition analysis showed higher contribution of yield (%) to output
growth ranging from 44.23 % to 255.06 % in cumin; and 61.47 % to 142.90 % in
coriander. In case of fennel and fenugreek the share (%) of area and area-yield
interaction was observed to be higher in terms of output growth.
Supply response model showed lagged prices of the study crops as the most
important determinant of acreage; followed by lagged acreage; time period and
rainfall in all the study crops. The influence of NHM dummy was at best negligible
revealing that the estimated growth changes have arrived over the time period alone
and not due to any specific intervention like that of NHM. Higher coefficient of
adjustment at the aggregate levels in cumin (0.851); coriander (0.793); fennel (0.701)
and fenugreek (0.625) indicated that the farmers took less time period in making
adjustments in allocating area under the crop.
Further, a comparative closeness of long-run elasticities (LRE) to that of short run elasticities (SRE) in the supply-response model revealed a greater degree of
acreage adjustment among farmers in response to the changes in the price and non price influencing factors. Overall, it was found that on an average the farmers
required 1.57 to 3.05 years to adjust their acreage under seed spices to the desired
level in order to realize 95 % of the price effect while considering Gujarat state as a
whole. Except for Banaskantha (18.71 years) in fennel and Surendranagar (17.78
years) in fenugreek, the speed of adjustment across the districts for seed spices was
also found to be in tandem with the adjustment effect of the state. The study
recommends the need of putting in place a bundle of technical, technological and
market-led support mechanisms on a continuous basis so as to keep the acreage of
seed spices under desired level.