DYNAMICS OF CASTOR OIL EXPORTS FROM INDIA AND INSTABILITY ANALYSIS OF CASTOR PRODUCTION IN MAJOR STATES 2841
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Date
2019-05
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JAU, JUNAGADH
Abstract
Presently, India is the top most castor seeds producing country, contributing
nearly 87 per cent of the world production, however, its area and production are highly
unstable. India exports about three-fourth per cent of its total production of castor oil
and its derivatives. India stands at the top position in the list of major castor oil
exporting countries. Though, India is a dominant player in the world market, it is just a
price taker and not a price setter, due to its poor infrastructure, but it has the capability
to improve on the exports of the derivatives of castor and overcome this limitation.
Keeping in view of this potentiality, the present study “Dynamics of castor oil exports
from India and instability analysis of castor production in major sates” was undertaken
with the main objectives to assess the growth dimensions, instability, sources of growth
and variability, direction of trade and forecasting of quantum of future castor oil and
castor cake exports to major importing countries.
The secondary data on area, production and productivity of castor, volume and
value of castor oil and castor cake exports from India was collected from 1976-77 to
2017-18 and 2003-04 to 2017-18, respectively from various public sources. The data was analyzed using compound growth rate, coefficient of variation, Cuddy Della Vella
index, Hazell’s decomposition analysis and first order Markov chain model.
Among different states of India, Rajasthan recorded highest growth rates in area,
production and productivity followed by Gujarat and at all India level. Growth rates of
castor oil’s export quantity, value and unit value were found highest in Period I (1986-87
to 1995-96) of study. In castor cake export, growth rate of value of castor cake was found
highest among growth rates of quantity, value and unit value.
The instability of castor area, production and productivity was highest in Rajasthan
among different major castor growing states of India. The instability analysis of castor oil
and castor cake exports, the value of castor oil found to be highly unstable.
Results of decomposition analysis revealed that in case of both castor oil and castor
cake among all components, share of mean export quantity contributed the highest in
change in variance of export value.
Results of TPM revealed that China and japan were the most reliable and loyal
market for Indian castor oil during the study period and Netherlands was moderately stable
market. In castor cake export, South Korea was found as the most stable market with high
probability of retention. Taiwan was found to be moderately stable as indicated by
moderate probability of retention.
The shares of major importers of Indian castor oil and castor cake were estimated
using the transitional probability matrices and the same were compared with the actual
export shares obtained from the trade data. It was predicted by using TPM that quantum of
castor oil export for China, was expected to increase in ensuring years, while quantity
exported to Netherlands, USA, France, Japan, Thailand and other countries were expected
to decline from the year 2017-18 onwards. On the other hand for castor cake forecasting
reveal that in terms of quantity, castor cake export to all the countries under study would
be likely to decline in near future.
This study suggest that there is large scope for achieving higher production of castor
seeds in India, provided to extend minimum support price for this crop as like other
oilseeds. India achieved remarkable growth rate in export of castor oil and it has vast
potential for further expansion with value added products as per the need of importing
countries. As the world becoming more environmental conscious now a days, these natural
derivatives of castor oil could find better market worldwide.