DEVELOPMENT OF STATISTICAL MODEL FOR PREDICTING OUTBREAK OF HAEMORRHAGIC SEPTICAEMIA AMONG RUMINANTS IN KARNATAKA
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Date
2019-08-24
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UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, GKVK BENGALURU
Abstract
India occupies the first position in the world’s Buffalo population and it stands
second in the world Cattle and Sheep Population as per 19th Livestock Census. These
Animal suffers from different kinds of infectious diseases, among which Haemorrhagic
Septicaemia is lethal, which is caused by the bacteria called Pasteurella multocida. To
develop a statistical model to forewarn the outbreak of Haemorrhagic Septicaemia and to
identify the significant risk factors, the data on the outbreak of Haemorrhagic Septicaemia
(HS) in all districts of Karnataka for the period from 2006 to 2017 was obtained from the
Department of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Services, Government of Karnataka.
Zero Inflated Poisson model was found to perform better when compared Poisson,
Negative Binomial and Zero Inflated Negative Binomial models with the lowest AIC value
of 3260.991 and Pearson Chi-square value of 1.0028. The same model was used to identify
the significant risk factors in the outbreak of Haemorrhagic Septicaemia and it was found
that Land Surface Temperature, Air Temperature, Potential evapotranspiration Rainfall
and Soil Moisture was found to have significant impact in the disease outbreak. Risk areas
for the disease outbreak were identified based on the Standardized Mortality Rate which
takes into account the bovine population of each district and it showed that Belgaum district
of Karnataka was found to have a very high risk followed by Hassan and Shimoga with
high risk of disease outbreak