SMALL RUMINANT POPULATION IN INDIA – A FORECAST FOR THE FUTURE

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dc.contributor.authorArya, S. Nair
dc.contributor.authorThirunavukkarasu, M
dc.contributor.authorSerma Saravana Pandian, A
dc.contributor.authorSenthilkumar, G
dc.contributor.authorBalan, C
dc.contributor.authorTANUVAS
dc.date.accessioned2021-07-30T09:09:28Z
dc.date.available2021-07-30T09:09:28Z
dc.date.issued2021-04
dc.descriptionTNV_IJSR_2021_27(1)24-30en_US
dc.description.abstractSmall ruminants continue to assure subsistence by ensuring reasonable livelihood to resource poor farmers of rural India, even when the monsoon fails. A study was made to forecast the small ruminants population in the future by taking into account their past and present growth trends. Data on small ruminants population from 1950-51 to 2016-17 were collected from various reports of Basic Animal Husbandry Statistics (BAHS). Time series forecasting models were employed to identify the growth patterns and to predict the future trends in small ruminants population. Different forecasting models were compared to identify the best fit model using different criteria. From the results, it could be discerned that the Brown Exponential Smoothing model was the best fit model for forecasting sheep population and the forecasted sheep population for the years 2020-21, 2030-31, 2040-41 and 2050-51 which were 65.774, 72.673, 79.572 and 85.782 million, respectively., The sheep population would continue to exhibit positive growth in the future, due to the increasing demand for mutton owing to the increasing per capita incomes and rapid urbanisation. ARIMA (1,1,0) model was found to be the best fit model for forecasting goat population and the forecasted goat population were 139.812, 153.155, 166.401 and 178.321 million during 2020-21, 2030-31, 2040-41 and 2050-51, respectively, which showed that goats will continue to multiply faster due to high market demand.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/5810171179
dc.keywordsForecasting, Goat, Population, Sheep,Time series analysisen_US
dc.language.isoEnglishen_US
dc.pages24-30en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries;1
dc.subjectVeterinary Scienceen_US
dc.titleSMALL RUMINANT POPULATION IN INDIA – A FORECAST FOR THE FUTUREen_US
dc.title.alternativeIndian Journal of Small Ruminantsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.volume27en_US
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