SMALL RUMINANT POPULATION IN INDIA – A FORECAST FOR THE FUTURE
Loading...
Date
2021-04
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Abstract
Small ruminants continue to assure subsistence by ensuring reasonable livelihood to resource
poor farmers of rural India, even when the monsoon fails. A study was made to forecast the small
ruminants population in the future by taking into account their past and present growth trends.
Data on small ruminants population from 1950-51 to 2016-17 were collected from various reports
of Basic Animal Husbandry Statistics (BAHS). Time series forecasting models were employed to
identify the growth patterns and to predict the future trends in small ruminants population. Different
forecasting models were compared to identify the best fit model using different criteria. From the
results, it could be discerned that the Brown Exponential Smoothing model was the best fit model
for forecasting sheep population and the forecasted sheep population for the years 2020-21,
2030-31, 2040-41 and 2050-51 which were 65.774, 72.673, 79.572 and 85.782 million,
respectively., The sheep population would continue to exhibit positive growth in the future, due to
the increasing demand for mutton owing to the increasing per capita incomes and rapid
urbanisation. ARIMA (1,1,0) model was found to be the best fit model for forecasting goat
population and the forecasted goat population were 139.812, 153.155, 166.401 and 178.321
million during 2020-21, 2030-31, 2040-41 and 2050-51, respectively, which showed that goats will
continue to multiply faster due to high market demand.
Description
TNV_IJSR_2021_27(1)24-30
Keywords
Veterinary Science