FORECASTING OF ARRIVALS AND PRICES OF RED CHIILIES IN GUNTUR AND KHAMMAM MARKET YARDS

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dc.contributor.advisorSRINIVASA RAO, V
dc.contributor.authorVENKATAVISWATEJA, B
dc.date.accessioned2019-04-30T09:00:45Z
dc.date.available2019-04-30T09:00:45Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.descriptionD5669en_US
dc.description.abstractThe present study entitled “Forecasting of Arrivals and Prices of Red Chillies in Guntur and Khammam Market Yards” has been undertaken to fit different time series models on arrivals and prices data of red chillies of selected market yards and to forecast the arrivals and prices by best fitted model up to 2019. The time series monthly secondary data was collected from April, 2002 to December, 2017 (189 months) for the study. Different time series models like Exponential Smoothing, ARIMA, ARCH, GARCH models were fitted to the arrivals and prices data and the best fitted model was selected based on highest R2, least MAPE, MAE, RMSE and BIC values for future projections. The study revealed that the arrivals of red chillies in Guntur market yard showed an increasing trend during the study period and the predicted values indicate that the highest arrivals observed in the month of March every year including the years 2018 and 2019 and followed same seasonality. As per the prices is concerned, the prices of red chillies in Guntur market yard showed an increasing trend during the study period and the predicted values indicate that the highest prices observed in the month of October every year including the years 2018 and 2019 and followed same seasonality. In Khammam market yard, the arrivals of red chillies showed an increasing trend during the study period and the predicted values indicate that the highest arrivals observed in the month of March every year including the years 2018 and 2019 and followed same seasonality. As per the prices is concerned, the prices of red chillies in Khammam market yard showed an increasing trend during the study period and the predicted values indicate that the highest prices observed in the month of January every year including the years 2018 and 2019 and followed same seasonality. It was observed that the arrivals and prices are positive non-significantly correlated in the both market yards. Hence to get good price for red chillies in both market yards the farmers are suggested to bring their produce to the market yards during the month showing highest prices.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/5810101399
dc.keywordsFORECASTING, ARRIVALS, PRICES, RED CHIILIES, GUNTUR, KHAMMAMen_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.pages107en_US
dc.publisherAcharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural Universityen_US
dc.research.problemFORECASTING OF ARRIVALS AND PRICES OF RED CHIILIES IN GUNTUR AND KHAMMAM MARKET YARDSen_US
dc.subAgricultural Statistics and Informaticsen_US
dc.subjectnullen_US
dc.themeFORECASTING OF ARRIVALS AND PRICES OF RED CHIILIES IN GUNTUR AND KHAMMAM MARKET YARDSen_US
dc.these.typeM.Scen_US
dc.titleFORECASTING OF ARRIVALS AND PRICES OF RED CHIILIES IN GUNTUR AND KHAMMAM MARKET YARDSen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
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