FORECASTING OF ARRIVALS AND PRICES OF RED CHIILIES IN GUNTUR AND KHAMMAM MARKET YARDS
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Date
2018
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Acharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural University
Abstract
The present study entitled “Forecasting of Arrivals and Prices of Red Chillies in
Guntur and Khammam Market Yards” has been undertaken to fit different time series
models on arrivals and prices data of red chillies of selected market yards and to forecast
the arrivals and prices by best fitted model up to 2019. The time series monthly
secondary data was collected from April, 2002 to December, 2017 (189 months) for the
study. Different time series models like Exponential Smoothing, ARIMA, ARCH,
GARCH models were fitted to the arrivals and prices data and the best fitted model was
selected based on highest R2, least MAPE, MAE, RMSE and BIC values for future
projections.
The study revealed that the arrivals of red chillies in Guntur market yard showed
an increasing trend during the study period and the predicted values indicate that the
highest arrivals observed in the month of March every year including the years 2018 and
2019 and followed same seasonality.
As per the prices is concerned, the prices of red chillies in Guntur market yard
showed an increasing trend during the study period and the predicted values indicate that
the highest prices observed in the month of October every year including the years 2018
and 2019 and followed same seasonality.
In Khammam market yard, the arrivals of red chillies showed an increasing trend
during the study period and the predicted values indicate that the highest arrivals
observed in the month of March every year including the years 2018 and 2019 and
followed same seasonality.
As per the prices is concerned, the prices of red chillies in Khammam market
yard showed an increasing trend during the study period and the predicted values
indicate that the highest prices observed in the month of January every year including
the years 2018 and 2019 and followed same seasonality.
It was observed that the arrivals and prices are positive non-significantly
correlated in the both market yards. Hence to get good price for red chillies in both
market yards the farmers are suggested to bring their produce to the market yards during
the month showing highest prices.
Description
D5669
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