A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF ARRIVALS AND PRICES OF TOMATO IN MAJOR MARKETS OF KARNATAKA
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Date
2019-09-11
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UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES GKVK, BENGALURU
Abstract
Analysis of agricultural commodity price and market arrivals over time is important
to know the fluctuations. It helps to formulate appropriate ways and means for reducing
price fluctuations. Hence, trends in arrivals and prices of tomato were studied in selected
markets viz., Bengaluru-Urban, Chikkaballapura, Chinthamani, Kolar and Srinivasapura of
Karnataka. The secondary monthly data pertaining to arrivals and prices of tomato in the
above mentioned five markets was collected from Krishimaratavahini website for the
period of 11 years i.e. from 2008 to 2018. Linear and Nonlinear models were used to
analyze the trends in arrivals and prices of tomato. The co-integration between markets
was analyzed using Johansen’s co-integration test and the pairwise causality between
markets was analyzed using Granger causality test. Different forecasting models like
Holt’s-Winter Exponential smoothing model and SARIMA models were considered to
forecast and to measure the forecast accuracy among different selected models. Trend
analysis carried out for arrivals and prices of tomato in different markets revealed that the
different trend lines were suitable for different markets. In case of arrivals, quadratic
(Bengaluru-Urban & Kolar), exponential (Chikkaballapura & Chinthamani) and cubic
(Srinivasapura) models were found to be the best fitted lines. In case of market prices,
power (Bengaluru-Urban, Chikkaballapura & Chinthamani) and cubic (Kolar &
Srinivasapura) models were fitted best with lower RMSE and higher R2 values. Market
co-integration analysis revealed that all the five selected markets were co-integrated and
pair-wise co-integration exist between the markets. Different SARIMA models were found
suitable for forecasting for different markets.