STUDY OF FERTILIZER CONSUMPTION PATTERN IN DISTRICTS OF NORTHERN TELANGANA REGION OF ANDHRA PRADESH

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dc.contributor.advisorNARENDRA NATH, V.V.
dc.contributor.authorCHANCHAL PRAMANIK
dc.date.accessioned2016-08-12T10:07:37Z
dc.date.available2016-08-12T10:07:37Z
dc.date.issued2010
dc.description.abstractThe present study entitled “Study of Fertilizer Consumption Pattern in Districts of Northern Telangana region of Andhra Pradesh” had been attempted to identify the trends with shifts in fertilizer consumptions, to identify the determinants of fertilizer consumption and developing forecasting models for fertilizer consumptions. The reference period of study was from 1977-78 to 2007-08 and the study was carried out for the Northern Telangana region of Andhra Pradesh comprising of Adilabad, Karimnagar, Warangal and Khammam districts. Trends in Fertilizer consumption, Total cropped area, Gross irrigated area, Rainfed area were identified by computing compound growth rates. However, the time series data on these dependent variables exhibited a discontinuity over the study period. Hence, the growth in fertilizer consumption was measured after identifying the period of discontinuity which leads to formation of sub periods in the data. These years of discontinuity or shifts were identified by the graphical approach (control charts). The determinants of fertilizer consumption were identified by multiple linear regression using non-price factors like Total cropped area, Rainfed area, Gross irrigated area. The conventional trend models were fitted to the season wise fertilizer consumption and the best fitted models for forecasting the fertilizer demand were identified based on significant Adj R2 and least Residual Mean Square (RMS). The ARIMA model had been fitted based on the time series data of the fertilizer consumption data. The Spline Regression model had been fitted based on the identified shifts. The study revealed that the N, P, K and NPK total fertilizer consumption marked a significant increasing trend for all the districts of Telangana region. Except in Adilabad district, potash showed highest compound growth rate in the remaining three districts. In Adilabad district phosphate showed high compound growth rate compared to remaining three i.e., N, K, NPK total. Phosphate consumption recorded highest compound growth rate i.e., 10.95 in Adilabad district. The total NPK fertilizer recorded highest consumption in Karimnagar district with a mean consumption of 82755 tonnes. In all the four districts of Telangana region, gross irrigated area showed the positive growth rates. The total cropped area showed positive growth rates for all the districts except Adilabad district. Total rainfed area had shown a negative trend for all the districts. Out of the three independent variables viz., total cropped area, gross irrigated area and rainfed area that were included in the regression model, in all the cases gross irrigated area significantly affected the fertilizer consumption except in Adilabad district where total rainfed area had significantly affected the fertilizer consumption. In case of forecasting of fertilizer consumptions of northern districts of Telangana region of Andhra Pradesh ARIMA model performed well among all the models for forecasting of N, P, K and total NPK consumptions for Warangal district in 2006-07 year. ARIMA model also performed as the best forecasting model for N consumption in 2006-07 and K and total NPK consumptions for 2006- 07 and 2007-08 years for Khammam district. Conventional model performed well for forecasting of P consumption in Adilabad district and K consumption in Karimnagar district for the year 2007-08. For forecasting of the rest of the fertilizer consumptions Spline model performed well among all the models under study. Hence, Spline model proved to be the best forecasting model among all the conventional trend models and ARIMA model.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/72276
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherACHARYA N.G. RANGA AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY RAJENDRANAGAR, HYDERABADen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesD8606;
dc.subStatistics and Mathematics
dc.subjectSTUDY, FERTILIZER, CONSUMPTION, PATTERN, DISTRICTS, NORTHERN, TELANGANA, REGION, ANDHRA PRADESHen_US
dc.these.typeM.Sc
dc.titleSTUDY OF FERTILIZER CONSUMPTION PATTERN IN DISTRICTS OF NORTHERN TELANGANA REGION OF ANDHRA PRADESHen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
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