STUDY OF FERTILIZER CONSUMPTION PATTERN IN DISTRICTS OF NORTHERN TELANGANA REGION OF ANDHRA PRADESH
Loading...
Files
Date
2010
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
ACHARYA N.G. RANGA AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY RAJENDRANAGAR, HYDERABAD
Abstract
The present study entitled “Study of Fertilizer Consumption Pattern in Districts of Northern
Telangana region of Andhra Pradesh” had been attempted to identify the trends with shifts in
fertilizer consumptions, to identify the determinants of fertilizer consumption and developing
forecasting models for fertilizer consumptions. The reference period of study was from 1977-78 to
2007-08 and the study was carried out for the Northern Telangana region of Andhra Pradesh
comprising of Adilabad, Karimnagar, Warangal and Khammam districts.
Trends in Fertilizer consumption, Total cropped area, Gross irrigated area, Rainfed area were
identified by computing compound growth rates. However, the time series data on these dependent
variables exhibited a discontinuity over the study period. Hence, the growth in fertilizer consumption
was measured after identifying the period of discontinuity which leads to formation of sub periods in
the data. These years of discontinuity or shifts were identified by the graphical approach (control
charts).
The determinants of fertilizer consumption were identified by multiple linear regression
using non-price factors like Total cropped area, Rainfed area, Gross irrigated area.
The conventional trend models were fitted to the season wise fertilizer consumption and the
best fitted models for forecasting the fertilizer demand were identified based on significant Adj R2
and least Residual Mean Square (RMS). The ARIMA model had been fitted based on the time series
data of the fertilizer consumption data. The Spline Regression model had been fitted based on the
identified shifts.
The study revealed that the N, P, K and NPK total fertilizer consumption marked a
significant increasing trend for all the districts of Telangana region. Except in Adilabad district,
potash showed highest compound growth rate in the remaining three districts. In Adilabad district
phosphate showed high compound growth rate compared to remaining three i.e., N, K, NPK total.
Phosphate consumption recorded highest compound growth rate i.e., 10.95 in Adilabad district. The
total NPK fertilizer recorded highest consumption in Karimnagar district with a mean consumption
of 82755 tonnes.
In all the four districts of Telangana region, gross irrigated area showed the positive growth
rates. The total cropped area showed positive growth rates for all the districts except Adilabad
district. Total rainfed area had shown a negative trend for all the districts.
Out of the three independent variables viz., total cropped area, gross irrigated area and
rainfed area that were included in the regression model, in all the cases gross irrigated area
significantly affected the fertilizer consumption except in Adilabad district where total rainfed area
had significantly affected the fertilizer consumption.
In case of forecasting of fertilizer consumptions of northern districts of Telangana region of
Andhra Pradesh ARIMA model performed well among all the models for forecasting of N, P, K and
total NPK consumptions for Warangal district in 2006-07 year. ARIMA model also performed as the
best forecasting model for N consumption in 2006-07 and K and total NPK consumptions for 2006-
07 and 2007-08 years for Khammam district. Conventional model performed well for forecasting of
P consumption in Adilabad district and K consumption in Karimnagar district for the year 2007-08.
For forecasting of the rest of the fertilizer consumptions Spline model performed well among all the
models under study. Hence, Spline model proved to be the best forecasting model among all the
conventional trend models and ARIMA model.
Description
Keywords
STUDY, FERTILIZER, CONSUMPTION, PATTERN, DISTRICTS, NORTHERN, TELANGANA, REGION, ANDHRA PRADESH