A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF ARRIVALS AND PRICES OF MANGO IN SELECTED MARKETS OF KARNATAKA
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Date
2022-03-03
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Abstract
Analysis of prices and market arrivals over time is important in order to understand price fluctuations and for establishing effective methods and means for reducing price fluctuations of agricultural commodities. In the present study, trends in mango crop arrivals and prices over time from BinnyMill, Chintamani, and Srinivaspur markets of Karnataka state were chosen from a pool of all market places in Karnataka based on the highest amount of mango arrivals. Monthly secondary data on arrivals and prices of mango were obtained from the respective APMCs over the period of 18 years from 2002 to 2019. The Linear model predicted the trend in mango arrivals as the best in BinnyMill market while Cubic model predicted the best in both Chintamani and Srinivaspur markets. Further, Cubic model explained the trend in mango prices as the best in both BinnyMill and Chintamani markets while Quadratic model explained best for Srinivaspur market. Box-Jenkin's method was used to forecast mango prices in selected markets. Since, there was seasonality in the data, seasonal ARIMA model were fitted. The data's stationarity was tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, which revealed that all the markets' price series were non-stationary. From the analysis, it was revealed that SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,0,1)[3], SARIMA(2,0,0)(0,0,0)[3] and SARIMA(0,1,0)(1,0,1)[3] models were the best fitted SARIMA models for BinnyMill, Chintamani, and Srinivaspur markets, respectively.
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