Regional rainfall analysis of Haryana in relation to monsoon teleconnections
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Date
2020-11
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CCSHAU, Hisar
Abstract
The investigation entitled “Regional rainfall analysis of Haryana in relation to monsoon
teleconnections” was carried out for Haryana. The meteorological data of 30 years (1988 - 2017) of
different locations in the state was used for this investigation. The mean monsoon season rainfall in
the state ranged between 248.1 mm at Sirsa and 957.2 mm at Ambala. All locations showed a general
decreasing trend in the rainfall behaviour in recent times. The cumulative contribution of rainfall of
July and August was 61 to 70% in monsoon season rainfall at different locations. Monthly mean
rainfall ranged between 43.6 and 134.1 mm (June), 81.2 and 340.2 mm (July), 68.8 and 331.2 mm
(August) and 54.5 and 175.4 mm (September) at different locations.
The cumulative frequency of below normal rainfall during EI Niño episodes was observed
maximum at Hisar (83.2%) and most normal rainfall was observed at each Bhiwani (50.0%), Sonipat
(50.0%) as well as Ambala (50.0%). The cumulative frequency of above normal rainfall during La
Niña episodes was observed maximum at each Sirsa (50%), Hisar (50%), Bhiwani (50.0%) and
Narnaul (50.0%), whereas the frequency of above normal rainfall was observed minimum at Ambala
(16.6%). During the strongest El Niño year of 2015, most of the locations in the state received
deficient monsoon rainfall, whereas, during the strongest La Niña episode of 1988, most of the
locations received excess to large excess monsoon rainfall, which is indicative of the influence of
strongest El Niño and La Niña on the regional behaviour of monsoon rainfall. The strength of the
association between ENSO and monsoon rainfall was found significant for Sirsa, Hisar, Narnaul,
Rewari, Karnal, overall western agro-climatic zone of Haryana, as well as all India. But, the strength
of the association between monsoon rainfall pattern and NAO was insignificant for all the locations.
Monsoon rainfall at all stations showed a negative but significant correlation with Sea
Surface Temperature of Nino 3.4 region of the Pacific Ocean. All the regional stations along with
both agro-climatic zones, Haryana as well as subdivision showed positive and significant correlation
with Southern Oscillation Index, whereas no significant correlation was observed between monsoon
rainfall and North Atlantic Oscillation.
The influence of monsoon rainfall on bajra productivity for the different districts lying in
western Haryana as explained by coefficient of determination (R2) ranges from 7.02 % to 9.6 %,
whereas monsoon rainfall influenced bajra productivity of overall Haryana by 8.18 % only. Similarly,
the influence of monsoon rainfall on rice productivity for the different districts lying in eastern
Haryana ranges from 21.8 % to 48.2 %, whereas monsoon rainfall influenced Rice productivity of
overall Haryana by 24.3 % only.