BEHAVIOUR OF ARRIVALS AND PRICES OF COTTON IN SELECTED MARKETS OF KARNATAKA- A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
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Date
2019-08-22
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UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES GKVK, BENGALURU
Abstract
Cotton is the most important commercial crop grown in India. It is also known as
‘White Gold’. India is the highest producer of cotton in the world followed by USA and
China. Karnataka has the fourth position in area and production of cotton in the country.
To study the trend, seasonal variation and for forecasting, the monthly data on arrivals
and prices of cotton were collected from Vijayapura, Haveri, Raichur and Ranibennur
APMCs for the period of 16 years (2003-2018). Two years weekly price data was
collected for studying the co-integration of cotton markets. To analyze the trend in
arrivals and prices of cotton, linear and nonlinear models were fitted. RMSE and R2
values were considered to check the adequacy of the fitted models. For arrivals of cotton,
in few markets linear and in other markets nonlinear models were best fitted. Whereas,
for prices of cotton only linear model was best fitted. Ratio to moving average method
was used to calculate the seasonal indices of prices of cotton. All the markets showed low
prices during peak period of harvest. For forecasting of cotton prices, Holt’s winter and
ARIMA models were considered. The estimates of Holt Winter’s model were nonsignificant
in all the markets. Different ARIMA models were found suitable in each of
the markets. Cointegration test revealed that all the selected markets were co-integrated
and they have one Cointegration equation. Pairwise causality also existed between the
selected markets.