Thesis

A warmer future due to global climate change is the proven phenomenon which may lead to changes in the hydrological cycle, surface water as well as underground water resource. Since Punjab is a part of the arid and semi-arid regions of the India, underground water plays an indelible role in supplying its water needs that should specifically address the issue of groundwater resources and the effects of climate change. Therefore, a study was done to quantify the impacts of climate change on groundwater behaviour in Sirhind Canal Tract of Punjab under CSRIO-Mk 3 RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 future climate scenarios using MODFLOW. The study spanned 20 years of baseline (1998-2018) as well as two future periods‘ mid-century (MC) (2020-2050) and end century EC (2065-2095). The spatial distribution of recharge and draft was mapped to GIS and was provided as input to groundwater model. The results showed that that the temperature and rainfall would increase by 1.9 °C and 91 mm in MC and 3.6 °C and 72 mm in EC under RCP 4.5. While under RCP 6.0, the corresponding increase would be of 1.6 °C and 70 mm in MC and 3.5 °C and 73 mm in EC. The climate scenarios estimated an increase in evapotranspiration and runoff loss of 38% and 15%, respectively by EC. Two pumping scenarios were developed up to the year 2095, i.e. maintaining the current pumping rate for the study period and an increase in pumping rate according to the historical trend. In condition I, the above normal rainfall during MC under both the scenarios predicts a marginal rise of 0.8 m in 2050, with a gradual fall of 5.6 m in EC. While in condition II, the water table would fall by 34.3 m in MC and 51.2 m in EC. The results presented here should be interpreted as trends and not as accurate quantitative predictions of the hydrological changes as there are numerous sources of uncertainties associated with climate change prediction.

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