Impact of climate change on groundwater behaviour in Sirhind Canal Tract of Punjab
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Date
2019
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Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana
Abstract
A warmer future due to global climate change is the proven phenomenon which may lead to
changes in the hydrological cycle, surface water as well as underground water resource. Since
Punjab is a part of the arid and semi-arid regions of the India, underground water plays an
indelible role in supplying its water needs that should specifically address the issue of
groundwater resources and the effects of climate change. Therefore, a study was done to
quantify the impacts of climate change on groundwater behaviour in Sirhind Canal Tract of
Punjab under CSRIO-Mk 3 RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 future climate scenarios using
MODFLOW. The study spanned 20 years of baseline (1998-2018) as well as two future
periods‘ mid-century (MC) (2020-2050) and end century EC (2065-2095). The spatial
distribution of recharge and draft was mapped to GIS and was provided as input to
groundwater model. The results showed that that the temperature and rainfall would increase
by 1.9 °C and 91 mm in MC and 3.6 °C and 72 mm in EC under RCP 4.5. While under RCP
6.0, the corresponding increase would be of 1.6 °C and 70 mm in MC and 3.5 °C and 73 mm
in EC. The climate scenarios estimated an increase in evapotranspiration and runoff loss of
38% and 15%, respectively by EC. Two pumping scenarios were developed up to the year
2095, i.e. maintaining the current pumping rate for the study period and an increase in
pumping rate according to the historical trend. In condition I, the above normal rainfall during
MC under both the scenarios predicts a marginal rise of 0.8 m in 2050, with a gradual fall of
5.6 m in EC. While in condition II, the water table would fall by 34.3 m in MC and 51.2 m in
EC. The results presented here should be interpreted as trends and not as accurate quantitative
predictions of the hydrological changes as there are numerous sources of uncertainties
associated with climate change prediction.
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