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ThesisItem Open Access Price forecasting, linkages and relevance: a study of national commodity and derivatives exchange of India(Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, 2019) Dhir, Gauri; Dharni, KhushdeepPresent study has been undertaken to forecast the futures prices of selected agricultural commodities and to examine the linkage of Dhaanya with selected macro-economic indices and linkage of National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange with international commodity exchanges. Further, an attempt has been made to study the opinion of the stakeholders regarding agricultural commodity exchanges in India. To fulfill the first objective of this study, data mining tools have been used to forecast futures prices of sugar, soybean, chana (black) and castor seeds. Closing future prices of these commodities were collected from the website of the selected commodity exchange for the period of 9 years i.e. from January 2007 to June 2016. Secondly, linkage between Dhaanya and macro economic indices has been explored. These indices include WPI, IIP, CNX-NIFTY, M3, FPI of FAO and US Dollar. International linkages have also been identified by taking closing values of future prices of soybean, corn, sugar and soybean oil at national and international commodity exchanges. Further, to explore the relevance of agricultural commodity exchanges in India, primary data have been collected from stakeholders through three separate pre-structured questionnaires. Forecasting results indicate that data mining techniques such as ANN, SVM and Decision tree model can be used to forecast future prices of commodities in profitable manner. Long run relationship between Dhaanya and Index of industrial production (IIP) has been observed. International linkage results also indicate that there is presence of long run relationship between national and international commodity markets. Primary data results indicate that the farmers were having very low awareness regarding working of the commodity exchanges and were having negligible participation. There was a significant difference among the opinion of various stakeholders regarding the relevance of commodity exchanges in India.ThesisItem Restricted Performance and Usage of Data Mining Techniques for Predictive Modeling: A Study of selected Stock Markets(Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, 2019) Jasleen, .; Dharni, KhushdeepData mining techniques can effectively deal with the nonlinearity of the stock market and allow search for hidden patterns, in large volumes of data. The present study is aimed at evaluating the performance of data mining techniques across the global stock indices and also to evaluate the performance of data mining techniques in the selected Indian stock market, i.e., National Stock Exchange. Further, an attempt has been made to explore the usage of data mining techniques among the investors and stakeholders. Secondary data based on daily values of stock indices of three developed markets (United States of America, United Kingdom and Japan) and four emerging markets (China, Brazil, India and South Africa) were collected i.e. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), FTSE 100, Nikkei 225, SSE 50, iBovespa, Nifty 50, JALSH for the period of 12 years ranging from 1st April, 2005 to 31st March, 2017. Further, secondary data related to technical and fundamental variables were collected for the constituents of CNX 500 of National Stock Exchange with time period ranging from 1st April, 1998 to 31st March, 2016. Further, primary data was collected from 167 retail investors and other stakeholders with the help of pre structured non-disguised questionnaire. Results based on the analysis of secondary data reveal that there was a significant difference in performance of data mining techniques in terms of Hit Ratio, Returns, Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error across different stock indices. ANN models based on data of all selected indices performed better in terms of Hit Ratio and annual returns as compared to SVM models based on data of all indices. Further, results reveal that both data mining techniques i.e. ANN and SVM have an ability to differentiate between high performance and low performance stocks. Performance of stocks improved with the usage of data mining techniques as compared to buy-and-hold strategy. Results based on primary data reveal that retail investors face various challenges in using prediction techniques for investment decision making. Generally, there is a lack of awareness and knowledge regarding prediction techniques among the investors.ThesisItem Open Access Corporate Social Responsibility in India: A Study of Disclosures and Relevance(Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, 2019) Amritjot Kaur; Kathuria, Lalit MohanThe present study was undertaken with the objectives to analyze corporate social responsibility disclosures made by selected Indian companies; to study the relationship between corporate social responsibility and financial performance of selected companies; and to develop case studies regarding corporate social responsibility initiatives undertaken by selected companies. First two objectives were achieved by analyzing secondary data from annual reports of 137 companies for a period of ten years from 2007-08 to 2016-17. Companies were selected on the basis of market capitalization from CNX 500 index. For achieving third objective, both primary and secondary data were collected for selected five companies having manufacturing facilities in North India. Content analysis, mean score, standard deviation, trend analysis, analysis of variance and panel data regression were used for analysis. The results highlighted that most of Indian companies made corporate social responsibility disclosures in their annual reports over selected time period. Also, it was observed that disclosures have increased continuously across all sectors and industry groups over the time period. Further, it was found that financial disclosures are gaining popularity over the years but still qualitative disclosures are most favored and preferred by all the companies. It was found that maximum disclosures were in the „community development‟ and „human resource‟ themes, while least amount of disclosures was made in „emission of carbon and harmful gases‟ theme. Further, the relationship between corporate social responsibility and financial performance indicators (return on assets, return on equity and net profit margin) was investigated using panel data regression. The results highlighted that relationship between corporate social responsibility and return on equity as well as net profit margin was significant and negative, while no significant relationship was found between return on assets and corporate social responsibility. However, results on relationship between financial performance indicators and corporate social responsibility with one year, two years and three years lag were significant and negative with only return on equity. It was observed that the selected companies (for case studies) were actively involved in social responsibility initiatives mostly around their manufacturing units. Ambuja Cements Limited and Dabur India Limited were undertaking appreciable CSR initiatives. Based on the findings of the study it is recommended that instead of duplicating similar efforts the companies in India should think innovatively and initiate projects to ensure sustainable development to create a bigger impact on the society. The companies should also widen up their area of intervention by taking up social responsibility projects not only for the communities that live around its manufacturing plants but also for other needy communities living in other parts of the country.ThesisItem Open Access Management practices and problems of village industry enterprises: A study of Punjab.(Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, 2019) Baljeet Kaur; Goyal, PratibhaThe study was carried out to measure the growth, management practices and problems of village industries in the state of Punjab. It aimed at gaining insight into management practices and problems of various agro and non-agro based village industry enterprises. It highlighted the impact of government schemes on the growth of village industry enterprises. Time series data regarding production, sale and employment was taken from Statistical Abstracts of Punjab and primary data was collected through a self- structured questionnaire schedule. The state was divided into three agro climatic zones – sub- mountainous zone, central plain zone and south west zone. One district from each zone was selected for data collection. Data was collected from 300 respondents. The growth was analysed with the help of compound annual growth rates, mean and percentages. Management practices and problems related to finance, marketing, production and human resource management were studied by using percentages, Z-test, t-test and independents samples of t-test to know the differences of management practices and problems faced by various agro and non – agro based village industry enterprises. The compound annual growth rates of all agro and non-agro based village industry enterprises were found significant in terms of production, sale and employment but it showed fluctuated growth in various decades of all agro as well as non-agro based village industry enterprises except in case of processing of cereals and pulses and lime manufacturing. It was also observed that village industry enterprises followed most of management practices mentioned in the study. All enterprises followed the same kind of management practices whether it was agro or non-agro based village industry enterprises. But due to many managerial constraints these practices were not carried out in proper professional manner. „High rate of interest, „poor availability of credit‟ „competition from large firms‟ „high cost of labour‟ and unawareness about modern production techniques etc‟ were the major drawbacks of rural industry sector. Research showed that village industry entrepreneurs were mostly aware of government schemes for the promotion of small industry but majority of them had not availed benefits under those schemes due to procedural difficulties. These village industry enterprises can be developed by addressing these problems and spreading awareness among consumers about significance of this sector.ThesisItem Restricted Management practices and problems of village industry enterprises: A study of Punjab.(Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, 2019) Baljeet Kaur; Goyal, PratibhaThe study was carried out to measure the growth, management practices and problems of village industries in the state of Punjab. It aimed at gaining insight into management practices and problems of various agro and non-agro based village industry enterprises. It highlighted the impact of government schemes on the growth of village industry enterprises. Time series data regarding production, sale and employment was taken from Statistical Abstracts of Punjab and primary data was collected through a self- structured questionnaire schedule. The state was divided into three agro climatic zones – sub- mountainous zone, central plain zone and south west zone. One district from each zone was selected for data collection. Data was collected from 300 respondents. The growth was analysed with the help of compound annual growth rates, mean and percentages. Management practices and problems related to finance, marketing, production and human resource management were studied by using percentages, Z-test, t-test and independents samples of t-test to know the differences of management practices and problems faced by various agro and non – agro based village industry enterprises. The compound annual growth rates of all agro and non-agro based village industry enterprises were found significant in terms of production, sale and employment but it showed fluctuated growth in various decades of all agro as well as non-agro based village industry enterprises except in case of processing of cereals and pulses and lime manufacturing. It was also observed that village industry enterprises followed most of management practices mentioned in the study. All enterprises followed the same kind of management practices whether it was agro or non-agro based village industry enterprises. But due to many managerial constraints these practices were not carried out in proper professional manner. „High rate of interest, „poor availability of credit‟ „competition from large firms‟ „high cost of labour‟ and unawareness about modern production techniques etc‟ were the major drawbacks of rural industry sector. Research showed that village industry entrepreneurs were mostly aware of government schemes for the promotion of small industry but majority of them had not availed benefits under those schemes due to procedural difficulties. These village industry enterprises can be developed by addressing these problems and spreading awareness among consumers about significance of this sector.ThesisItem Restricted Option market foreshows spot market: relevance in Indian equity market(Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, 2019) Arora, Monika; Aggarwal, NavdeepThe study was undertaken to examine the impact of selected scheduled events namely fiscal budget, monetary policy, companies annual result and unscheduled events namely credit ratings changes, name/symbol changes, interim dividend on returns from stocks with options and stocks without options. The study covers the period ranging from January, 2011 to December, 2016.To achieve the objectives, National Stock Exchange Listed 30 stocks with options and 30 stocks without options were picked up randomly. Standard Event methodology as suggested by Brown and Warner (1985) and Kothari and Warner (1997) was applied. An estimation window of 252 trading days prior to 20 days of announcement of an event (e-252 to e-20) and event window of 20 days before the event to 10 days after the event (e-20 to e+10) was chosen. For calculation of estimated returns, Single Index model was used. No significant impact was observed on returns from stocks with options for abovementioned events. The findings of this study support the notion that traders with private information prefer to trade in options market than underlying spot market. Therefore, no significant effect of an event is observed in the stocks with options because traders are in a position to cover their states beforehand. The second area of the study was to study stock price predictability using open interest information of options market for underlying stocks. Using open interest based predictor, two types of strategies namely ‘static’ wherein positions once taken were maintained till expiry and ‘dynamic’ where positions were changed with the change in open interest based predictor, were used. Returns from both strategies outperformed the returns from passive buy and hold strategy. It can be concluded that options markets’ open interest contain useful information, which can provide profitable opportunities to an investor. In this way results lead to the connotation that options market foreshows spot market.ThesisItem Open Access Effectiveness of television and print advertisements for green durables: A study of rural and urban consumers of Punjab(Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, 2018) Gurbir Singh; SukhmaniThe present study is focused on the effectiveness of television and print advertisements of green durables. The study was conducted to gain insight into the perception of rural and urban consumers about various print and television advertisement campaigns of green durables. The study also highlighted some other important factors concerning with green marketing in rural and urban areas of Punjab, like level of awareness among consumers towards green durables and green values among the consumers. The study is completely based on primary data. A non disguised structured questionnaire was developed for data collection. For data collection the state of Punjab was divided into three regions namely Majha, Malwa and Doaba. One district from each region was selected for data collection. Data was collected from 540 respondents. Consumers’ exposure and level of awareness towards advertisements was analyzed using mean score, ranking method and factor analysis. Confirmatory factor analysis was applied to know the perceived effect of advertisements on consumers. Advertisement effectiveness, brand preference and advertisement persuasiveness were major effects of advertisements. Post purchase behaviour of consumers was studied using one sample t-test, independent sample t-test and regression analysis. Further one sample t-test and independent sample t-test were applied along with exploratory factor analysis to know the effect of advertisements on consumers’ life style. Advertisements forced the respondents for impulse purchase, transformation in the consumer profile, make them variety seeking, increase in consumers’ spending and preference to quality over cost.ThesisItem Open Access Combining financial statement analysis and technical analysis to enhance stock portfolio performance: A study of Indian stock market(Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, 2018) Manpreet Kaur; Aggarwal, NavdeepThe study was undertaken to examine the performance of combined financial statement analysis and technical analysis vis-à-vis standalone financial statement analysis and technical analysis among high book-to-market (value stocks) and low book-to-market (growth stocks). To fulfil the objectives, the research was carried out for each of the FY ranging from 2008-09 to FY 2012-13. For each of FY all the listed companies of National Stock Exchange (NSE) were arranged in descending order of book-to-market (B/M) ratio using the CMIE database Prowess. The companies were then sorted into five quintiles. Top quintile (that is, highest book-to-market ratio) was chosen for high book-to-market companies and bottom quintile (that is, lowest book-to-market ratio) was chosen for low book-to-market companies. The financial statement analysis among high book-to-market stocks was carried out using Piotroski (2000) framework and that among the low book-to-market (growth stocks) was carried out using Mohanram (2005) framework. Technical analysis among both types of stocks was carried out by applying Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) and Lee and Swaminathan (2000) methodology. Results show that financial statement analysis based strategy for both value and growth stocks outperforms the market for all holding periods of 3 months, 6 months and one year. However using technical analysis based strategy this outperformance hold good only for 3 months and 6 months formation and holding periods. The combined strategy outperforms standalone technical analysis and financial statement analysis based strategy for 3 months and 6 months holding periods. However for longer holding periods (one year) this outperformance disappears. But the degree of outperformance on combining the financial statement analysis and technical analysis was greater as compared to standalone financial statement analysis or technical analysis based strategies. It can be concluded from the results that it is beneficial for investors to form their investment strategy by combining financial statement analysis and technical analysis; if he plans to hold the portfolio for not more than 6 months.ThesisItem Open Access Performance attribution and fund managers’ ability : A study of equity d i v e r s i fi e d mutual fund s c h eme s in India(Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, 2018) Vashisht, Chetna; Gupta, MohitBrinson Hood Beebower (Brinson et al 1986) Performance Attribution model was applied on 110 equity diversified mutual fund growth schemes. The mean relative return was found to be 6.61% and significant at 5% level almost all due to significant selection effect and consequently the allocation effect was found to be nil in the entire period under study. Performance Attribution was also assessed with in different categories of mutual funds. Different parameters like mutual fund rating, mutual fund portfolio composition, 3 year and 5 year return rating, 3 year risk rating are found to be significant determinants of performance attribution. Fund managers’ stock selection ability and market timing ability was found using unconditional and conditional models. The study found positive and significant stock selection ability negative but not significant market timing ability as per Treynor Mazuy unconditional model. Further the study found positive and significant stock selection ability as per Henriksson Merton unconditional model. The unconditional models further constrained the results as the study found both stock selection ability negative and significant but the market timing ability as positive and significant. Overall results can be best sighted as neutral to positive stock selection ability and negative to neutral market timing ability both in terms of holding based and regression based models.