Price forecasting, linkages and relevance: a study of national commodity and derivatives exchange of India
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Date
2019
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Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana
Abstract
Present study has been undertaken to forecast the futures prices of selected agricultural commodities and to examine the linkage of Dhaanya with selected macro-economic indices and linkage of National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange with international commodity exchanges. Further, an attempt has been made to study the opinion of the stakeholders regarding agricultural commodity exchanges in India. To fulfill the first objective of this study, data mining tools have been used to forecast futures prices of sugar, soybean, chana (black) and castor seeds. Closing future prices of these commodities were collected from the website of the selected commodity exchange for the period of 9 years i.e. from January 2007 to June 2016. Secondly, linkage between Dhaanya and macro economic indices has been explored. These indices include WPI, IIP, CNX-NIFTY, M3, FPI of FAO and US Dollar. International linkages have also been identified by taking closing values of future prices of soybean, corn, sugar and soybean oil at national and international commodity exchanges. Further, to explore the relevance of agricultural commodity exchanges in India, primary data have been collected from stakeholders through three separate pre-structured questionnaires. Forecasting results indicate that data mining techniques such as ANN, SVM and Decision tree model can be used to forecast future prices of commodities in profitable manner. Long run relationship between Dhaanya and Index of industrial production (IIP) has been observed. International linkage results also indicate that there is presence of long run relationship between national and international commodity markets. Primary data results indicate that the farmers were having very low awareness regarding working of the commodity exchanges and were having negligible participation. There was a significant difference among the opinion of various stakeholders regarding the relevance of commodity exchanges in India.
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