RISK ESTIMATION AND PREDICTION OF BLACK QUARTER DISEASE OUTBREAK AMONG CATTLE IN KARNATAKA: A STATISTICAL APPROACH
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2022-12-15
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Cattle suffer from various diseases, Black Quarter (BQ) disease is one among them, and it is highly fatal disease, caused by Clostridium chauvoei. Hence, a study is carried out on Risk Estimation and Prediction of BQ disease outbreak among Cattle in Karnataka: a statistical approach by collecting 11 years secondary data from 2010 to 2020. Data were analysed using appropriate statistical tools through R software. Results indicated that the Spatial endemicity reveals Hassan district has got more outbreak of BQ disease during the period. Six districts namely Tumakuru, Mandya, Mysuru, Kodagu, Chikkamagaluru and Dakshina Kannada were identified as disease hotspot through Spatial autocorrelation. Space-time cluster analysis reveals that, Hassan district has high Relative Risk of 11.02 and Vijayapura, Raichur, Koppal, Bagalakote, Belagavi, Gadag, Dharwad, Udupi, Uttara Kannada, Haveri, Chitradurga, Shivamogga, Davanagere, Ballari, Chikkamagaluru together (0.25). Factors such as EVI, LST, PET, Rain precipitation rate, Soil moisture, Surface pressure and Wind speed significantly associated with the BQ disease outbreak
during Linear discriminant analysis. Among the five different models (GBM, RF, MARS, NB and SVM) adopted, RF and GBM models performed better for predicting the risk with AUC values 0.837 and 0.823, respectively. The average model (combination of GBM and RF model) risk prediction analysis, showed that the districts Mysuru, Mandya, Ramanagara, Chamarajanagar, Kolar, Bengaluru Rural, Chikkaballapura, Bengaluru Urban and Chikkamagaluru were in high heavy risk.
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