DISTRIBUTION AND FUTURE TRENDS OF MONTHLY RAINFALL IN THE DISTRICTS OF KERALA – A STATISTICAL APPROACH

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dc.contributor.advisorSRINIVASA RAO, V
dc.contributor.authorAKHISHA, P.A.
dc.date.accessioned2018-08-08T09:37:34Z
dc.date.available2018-08-08T09:37:34Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.descriptionD5458en_US
dc.description.abstractAn attempt was made to study the district wise monthly rainfall pattern of Kerala State. Data pertaining to monthly rainfall of the fourteen administrative districts of the state starting from 2004 to 2016 (156 months) was collected from Regional Meteorological Centre, Thiruvananthapuram for the study. Components of time series viz., secular trend, seasonality, cyclical variation and irregularity were studied along with the descriptive statistics like Arithmetic Mean (AM), Standard Deviation (SD) and Coefficient of Variation (CV%). To determine regional rainfall pattern, a non hierarchical cluster analysis, i.e., K means Clustering Algorithm, was applied on autocorrelation coefficients at different lags and four rainfall groups were found based on the time series models. The results of the time series modeling showed a high variation of temporal pattern of the monthly rainfall over Kerala. Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, Seasonal Dummy models and Seasonal Exponential Smoothing were fitted to the data and best model was chosen based on values of AIC, SBC, R square and MAPE. Better forecasts were obtained by Seasonal Dummy and Seasonal Exponential Smoothing. Trend analysis showed that the mean monthly rainfall of Kerala State exhibited a slightly decreasing trend over the period of study and seasonal indices were found highest in June and least in January. Clustering of districts showed that Kasargod and Kannur districts were listed under cluster 1 while Thiruvananthapuram was listed under Cluster 2 alone. Kottayam, Alappuzha, Pathanamthitta and Kollam were listed under Cluster 3 while Kozhikkode, Wayanad, Malappuram, Palakkad, Thrissur, Ernakulam and Idukki were listed under Cluster 4. The results of descriptive statistics indicated that the state received consistent rainfall in the month of June and inconsistent rainfall in February month. It also revealed that the state received maximum rainfall in 2007 and least rainfall in 2016 during the study period.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/5810063771
dc.keywordsDISTRIBUTION, RAINFALL, KERALAen_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.pages91en_US
dc.publisherAcharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural Universityen_US
dc.research.problemDISTRIBUTION AND FUTURE TRENDS OF MONTHLY RAINFALL IN THE DISTRICTS OF KERALA – A STATISTICAL APPROACHen_US
dc.subStatisticsen_US
dc.subjectnullen_US
dc.themeDISTRIBUTION AND FUTURE TRENDS OF MONTHLY RAINFALL IN THE DISTRICTS OF KERALA – A STATISTICAL APPROACHen_US
dc.these.typeM.Scen_US
dc.titleDISTRIBUTION AND FUTURE TRENDS OF MONTHLY RAINFALL IN THE DISTRICTS OF KERALA – A STATISTICAL APPROACHen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
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