Forecasting of production and prices of selected agricultural commodities -an application of statistical models
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Date
2008-06
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G.B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar - 263145 (Uttarakhand)
Abstract
Present work, Forecasting of production and prices of selected agricultural commodities-an application of statistical models treated the issue of analysis of growth trends and forecasting of production and prices of agricultural commodities and livestock products using various statistical models. The study has been presented in the form of thesis, comprising of five chapters. The chapter 1 is introductory, giving the motivation and the objectives of the present study. Chapter 2 accommodates majority of available past research work directly or indirectly related with the present work. Chapter 3 covers the sources of data available and methods currently being adapted and needed for the present study in examining the growth trends and building the forecasting models for time-series data. It also includes the detailed description of the model development and computation. Chapter 4 describes the application of different models which are used to analyze growth trend and to forecast the production and prices of the agricultural commodities and livestock products. For analysis of growth trend in area, production, yield and minimum support prices of rice, wheat, coarse cereals, pulses and for trend in prices of egg and broiler Semi-log (exponential) model was used. Compound growth rates were also calculated for each commodity. To forecast the production and minimum support prices of rice, wheat, coarse cereals and pulses two models namely Multiple Linear Regression model and Holt’s Linear Exponential Smoothing Model were used. However, for the forecasting of prices of egg and broiler two models namely Winter’s forecasting model and Holt’s Linear Exponential Smoothing Forecasting model were used. The results obtained and their interpretation is presented in this chapter. The work has been summarized in chapter 5 in view of the set objectives and findings of the study. The literature used in the research work has been referred under the section Literature Cited. A computer program developed for the application of Holt’s Linear Exponential Smoothing Forecasting model is given in the Appendix.
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