STATISTICAL STUDY OF ARRIVALS AND PRICES OF MAIZE IN SELECTED MARKETS OF KARNATAKA
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Date
2013-09-23
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University of Agricultural Sciences GKVK, Bangalore
Abstract
Analysis of prices and market arrivals over time is important to
know the fluctuations in them and it helps to formulate appropriate ways
and means for reducing price fluctuations of agricultural commodities. In
this direction, trends in arrivals and prices of maize were studied in
selected markets of Karnataka. Monthly time series data over a period of
21 years for Bagalkot and Belgaum markets indicated a raising trend.
Analysis of seasonal fluctuations revealed that prices were at its peak
during the months of March to May and begins to decline. During July
and August, the prices were low. Different forecasting models like Trend
analysis, Exponential smoothing models and Box-Jenkins models were
considered to produce forecast and to measure the forecast accuracy
among selected different models. In case of Bagalkot and Belgaum
markets price forecast by Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) (1,1,1) model was best
validated with the higher correlation coefficient and low coefficient of
variation indicating the best model for forecasting both the markets.
Market integration was studied between price pairs of maize in
three regional markets of Karnataka using co-integration approach for
daily wholesale maize prices over the period of one year from 1st January
2012 to 31st December 2012.Results showed that regional markets of
maize have strong price linkages and thus are spatially integrated. Bi
directional influences were seen to be exerted by Bagalkot and Davangere
markets on Belgaum market.
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Keywords
biological phenomena, animal husbandry, milk products, diseases, proteins, livestock, bacteria, tolerance, productivity, milk