IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES IN RICE CULTIVATION UNDER KRISHNA RIVER BASIN OF ANDHRA PRADESH

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dc.contributor.advisorVISHNU SANKAR RAO, D
dc.contributor.authorCHANDRA SEKHAR REDDY, M
dc.date.accessioned2018-04-25T09:56:42Z
dc.date.available2018-04-25T09:56:42Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.descriptionIMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES IN RICE CULTIVATION UNDER KRISHNA RIVER BASIN OF ANDHRA PRADESHen_US
dc.description.abstractThe present study tries to bring out such relevant intervention options or water management technologies by estimating the impacts of climate change to the selected adaptation strategy. The objectives formulated for assessing the impact of climate change are as follows 1) to identify the parameters causing climate change 2) to study the socio-economic conditions of the farmers and their perceptions on climate change 3) to quantify the impact of climate change on production, income and resource use 4) to analyse the impact of adaptation strategies to the climate change scenarios and 5) to calculate the cost of uncertainty for not adopting the technological interventions. The study was conducted in Nagarjuna Sagar Project command area of Krishna river basin and pertains to the agricultural year 2013-14. Both primary and secondary data were used for the present study covering five districts (Nalgonda, Khammam, Krishna, Guntur and Prakasam) falling in the project area. Purposive multistage random sampling design was adopted to obtain a representative sample of 300 farmers and primary data were collected through a well-structured interview schedule. The Just and Pope production function was used to estimate the mean yield of crops and the variance associated with the mean yield and using the estimated yield, the multiple goal programming model was used to optimize the land and water use under mid and end century climate change scenarios. Tools of decision analysis falling under the gamut of decision theory was also used to analyze economics of different interventions. Four climate change scenarios and resource availability were considered in the study.viz. S1-Current status with current levels of yield, water availability and labour availability, S2-Near future status (Next 20 years) with current level of 10 per cent reduction in water availability and 5 per cent reduction in labour availability,S3-Mid century status with projected mid century yield levels and 10 per cent reduction in water availability and 5 per cent reduction in labour xviii availability and S4-End century status with projected and century yield levels and 10 per cent reduction in water availability and 5 per cent reduction in labour availability. Six management options were considered in rice production viz.M1Current management interventions; M2-System of Rice Intensification (SRI) with 20 per cent reduction in water use; M3-Modified SRI with 15 per cent reduction in labour use; M4-Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) with 10 per cent less water needed rice; M5-AWD+Machine transplanting with 15 per cent reduction in labour use and M6-Direct seeding of rice with 20per cent reduction in water use for rice,10 per cent reduction labour and 10 percent reduction in yield. Cost of adaptation and expected cost of uncertainty and adopted monetary values were estimated using probability distribution of irrigation strategies of farmers and prices of rice crop. The annual minimum and mean temperatures in five districts under NSP project area increased by 1.14 0C during 1984 to 2014. The 10 years moving average shows that minimum temperatures were increased by 0.8 0C. The annual maximum mean temperatures in the five districts were also increased by 0.610C. The 10 year moving average shows that average maximum mean temperature increased by 0.41 0C. There was a significant variation in rainfall distribution from 1984 to 2014, viz Nalgonda 34 to -38 per cent, Khammam 38 to -39 per cent, Krishna 42 to – 41 per cent, Guntur 34 to -43 per cent and Prakasam 41 to – 40 per cent. The results showed that there is an increasing trend in rice yields in both the seasons in all the five districts. In the mean yield function precipitation variable is non significant for both kharif and rabi season with negative coefficient in rabi. The coefficient of temperature variable is positively significant both in kharif and rabi. The dummy variables coefficients for the districts are negatively significant for kharif except in Guntur district. The dummy variable coefficient for districts in rabi season were positively significant. The yield variance function of climate change, precipitation variable is negatively significant both in kharif and rabi. The coefficients of dummy variables for rice are non significant within kharif and rabi seasons for kharif significant in Krishna district. The projected change in mean daily temperatures for mid-twenty-first- century period were 1.930C and 2.22 0C during kharif and rabi season and for end -twenty-first- century period were 4.030C and 4.260C during kharif and rabi seasons respectively. The projected percentage change in mean precipitation for mid century was 12.5 and 17.6 per cent in kharif and rabi seasons for end century period was 13 and 53.4 percentages respectively for kharif and rabi seasons. The impact on rice yield varied from 11.4 per cent loss to -1.5 per cent in kharif for mid century with a variability of 370 to 586 kgs/ha. In rabi for mid century the impact is to the tune of 20.3 percent to 40.2 percent loss in rice yield with standard deviation of 88 to 326 kgs/ha. The impact for end century scenarios in kharif rice yields ranged from 7.8 to 31.1 xix per cent loss with a variability of 558 to 715 kgs/ha. In the end century scenario in rabi the yield loss to the extent of 35.2 to 58.1 percent with variability of 117 to 434 kgs/ha. The overall five districts yield loss is more in rabi compared to kharif ranged from 35 to 45 per cent but with less variability (201 to 268 kgs/ha) compared to kharif (452 to 680kgs/ha). Most of the climate variable coefficients and their square terms are significant for both mean variance functions. The trend coefficient is also significant for both the seasons. The impact of climate change on rice production for the mid and end century scenarios were estimated and found that there will be yield loss in the districts. The predicted variability in yield in all the districts at end-century is higher than the mid-century. The findings conclude that climate change will induce both yield loss and greater variability in yield. The optimisation model indicated that the current rice production in kharif season will be reduced by 26 per cent in the next 20 years. By adopting water saving technologies SRI,MSRI,AWD and DSR the rice production can be increased by about 50,000 to 1,00,000 tons during kharif season. The SRI and AWD will improve the gross income by Rs.0.42 billion and Rs 0.18 billion respectively. The water requirement decrease by 15.7 per cent in MSRD, 7.8 per cent in AWD and 2.8 percent in DSR water use technologies of rice production. The cost of adaptation of MSRI was Rs.4395/ha; for AWD it was Rs.646/ha and for DSR it was Rs.-3520/ha. The expected cost of uncertainty for adoption of the above technologies was Rs.12423/ha for MSRI Rs.2744/ha for AWD and Rs.1904/ha for DSR. The cost of uncertainty is higher than the cost of adoption indicates that the farmers are incurring more losses due to non adoption of technologies. To meet the water demand in the basin or irrigation project area, it is important to adopt efficient water and land management practices, such as modified system of rice intensification (machine transplantation), alternate wetting and drying of rice and direct seeding of rice. As piloting the technologies on individual farms will not have a major impact, a cluster approach (covering a group of villages in a location for each technology) will be more useful in up-scaling these management technologies. This will help to form ‘climate smart’ villages for knowledge-sharing and better updating success stories. Given the projected future labour scarcity in rice production, machine transplanting packages should be organized in villages through the involvement of the local community. There are also possibilities for establishing public–private partnership that can provide necessary support to mechanization in rice farming. To speed up the technology spread, policy interventions in terms of supplying the quality seeds in time, machine transplanting (for MSRI), water regulation in the canals, capacity-building programs and monitoring the technology adoption in the fields through stakeholder participation are highly warranted.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/5810044564
dc.keywordsCLIMATE, ADAPTATION STRATEGIES, RICE, KRISHNA RIVER, ANDHRA PRADESHen_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.pages203en_US
dc.publisherAcharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural Universityen_US
dc.research.problemIMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES IN RICE CULTIVATION UNDER KRISHNA RIVER BASIN OF ANDHRA PRADESHen_US
dc.subAgricultural Economicsen_US
dc.subjectnullen_US
dc.themeIMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES IN RICE CULTIVATION UNDER KRISHNA RIVER BASIN OF ANDHRA PRADESHen_US
dc.these.typePh.Den_US
dc.titleIMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES IN RICE CULTIVATION UNDER KRISHNA RIVER BASIN OF ANDHRA PRADESHen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
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