STATISTICAL MODELS FOR FORCASTING ARRIVALS AND PRICES OF MAJOR VEGETABLES AT SELECTED MARKETS IN KURNOOL DISTRICT OF ANDHRA PRADESH
| dc.contributor.advisor | Dr. B. RAMANA MURTHY | |
| dc.contributor.author | GANGIREDDY TEJASWINI REDDY | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2024-03-06T14:28:28Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2024-03-06T14:28:28Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2024-03-06 | |
| dc.description.abstract | The Present study entitled “Statistical Models for Forecasting Arrivals and Prices of Major Vegetables at Selected Markets in Kurnool District of Andhra Pradesh” is mainly aimed at to study the trends, variability, association and to forecast the arrivals and prices by best fitted model. Three major vegetable markets viz., C Camp market, Adoni market and Nandyal market for two highly consumed vegetables (tomato and onion) are considered for this study. The secondary data of daily arrivals (qtls) and daily prices (Rs/Kg) were collected from respective market committee for the period of three years two months (January 2019 to February 2022). The trend in the data was examined by observing trend lines. In C Camp market, tomato arrivals and prices had fluctuating trend over days during data period and peak arrivals (140 qtls) were noticed in the month of April-2020, while lowest arrivals (30 qtls) were noticed in the month of July-2020, and peak price of (74 Rs/Kg) was recorded in the month of November-2021, while least prices (6 Rs/Kg) were noticed in the month of March-2019. Onion arrivals had showed a gradually increasing trend and peak arrivals (80 qtls) were noticed in the month of January-2021, but least arrivals (4 qtls) were noticed in October-2020 and prices had fluctuating trend over the days in the data period and prices (70 Rs/Kg) were on hike in the month of December-2019, and low prices (1 Rs/Kg) were recorded in the month of February 2021. In Adoni market, tomato arrivals displayed a constant trend over data period but peak arrivals (26 qtls) were recorded in the month of August-2020, low arrivals (14 qtls) were noticed in the month of February-2022 and peak prices (48 Rs/Kg) were recorded in the month of March-2019 and prices had decreasing trend while least prices (6 Rs/Kg) were noticed in April-2022, Onion arrivals had showed a gradually decreasing trend and peak arrivals (18 qtls) were noticed in the month of March-2020, least arrivals (1 qtl) were recorded in the month of January-2022 but onion prices had xiii fluctuating trend over the days in the data period and peak prices (80 Rs/Kg) were noticed in the month of October-2020, and low prices (8 Rs/Kg) were recorded in the month of February-2019. In Nandyal market, tomato arrivals displayed a decreasing trend during the data period but peak arrivals (32 qtls) were recorded in the month of September-2020, while least arrivals (8 qtls) were noticed in the month of January-2019. Tomato prices were showing fluctuating trend and peak prices (50 Rs/Kg) were noticed in the month of June-2019, least prices (2 Rs/Kg) were recorded in the month of March-2020. Onion arrivals had showed stable trend and peak arrivals (55 qtls) were noticed in the month of January-2021, least arrivals (3 qtls) were noticed in the month of February-2019 but onion prices had increasing trend in the data period and prices (56 Rs/Kg) were on hike in the month of March-2020, least prices (4 Rs/Kg) were recorded in the month of February-2019. Coefficient of variation (CV) was calculated to understand the variation of arrivals and prices of tomato and onion. For arrivals and prices, CV was almost non consistent with deviation over years, which indicated that the arrivals and price were showing variation. But in case of Adoni market there was less-variation and consistency in arrivals of tomato and onion. To ascertain the relationship between arrivals and prices in respective market, correlation coefficient was computed. There was a negative and significant correlation between arrivals and prices of tomato and onion in all selected markets. Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models were used for forecasting the arrivals and prices. At the identification stage, one or more models are tentatively chosen and the most suitable models are selected based on highest R2 and least RMSE and MAPE values. ANN models outperformed ARIMA model in forecasting arrivals and prices in tomato and onion at selected markets in Andhra Pradesh. The predicted values and actual values were close to each other in most of the cases. | |
| dc.identifier.other | D6514 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/5810207423 | |
| dc.keywords | STATISTICAL MODELS | |
| dc.keywords | FORCASTING ARRIVALS | |
| dc.keywords | MAJOR VEGETABLES | |
| dc.language.iso | English | |
| dc.pages | 90 | |
| dc.publisher | Acharya N G Ranga Agricultural University | |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | D6514; D6514 | |
| dc.sub | Agricultural Statistics and Informatics | |
| dc.theme | STATISTICAL MODELS FOR FORCASTING ARRIVALS AND PRICES OF MAJOR VEGETABLES AT SELECTED MARKETS IN KURNOOL DISTRICT OF ANDHRA PRADESH | |
| dc.these.type | M.Sc | |
| dc.title | STATISTICAL MODELS FOR FORCASTING ARRIVALS AND PRICES OF MAJOR VEGETABLES AT SELECTED MARKETS IN KURNOOL DISTRICT OF ANDHRA PRADESH | |
| dc.type | Thesis |