EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL MODELS FOR PREDICTION OF AREA AND PRODUCTION OF POTATO (Solanum tuberosum. L) IN HIMACHAL PRADESH
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Date
2021-10
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Publisher
UHF,NAUNI
Abstract
ABSRACT
The Present Investigation entitled “Evaluation of Statistical models for Prediction of
Area and Production of Potato (Solanum tuberosum. L) in Himachal Pradesh.” was
undertaken in the Department of Basic Science, Dr. Y.S. Parmar University of Horticulture
and Forestry, Nauni, Solan 173230 (H.P.) during 2019-2021. Last 31 years of secondary data
based on area (1000 ha) and production (1000 MT) of potato for H.P was used and various
prediction models viz. linear, quadratic, cubic, compound, exponential, modified exponential,
power, gompertz, logistic, autoregressive and autoregressive integrated moving average were
applied and tested. All the six prediction models namely: linear, quadratic, compound,
exponential, power, gompertz, 1st order autoregressive and ARIMA (1,2,2) fitted well to the
area under potato but among all the models, quadratic model was found to be best model for
area under potato with highest value of , lowest value of RMSE, C.V, Theil’s inequality
coefficient (U) and non significant F value (chow test). The linear, compound, exponential,
logistic, 1st order autoregressive and ARIMA (1,1,2) fitted well to the potato production.
ARIMA (1,1,2) was fitted well to the production of potato, but on the basis of , RMSE,
C.V, Theil’s inequality coefficient (U) and nonsignificant F value (chow test) linear model
was found to be best fitted for potato production. An annual increase in Production growth
rate in Potato was obtained during the studied period.