TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF SELECTED PLANTATION CROPS IN DAKSHINA KANNADA DISTRICT OF KARNATAKA
| dc.contributor.advisor | Mallikarjuna, G.B. | |
| dc.contributor.author | CHAITHRA, M. | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2018-05-09T03:35:40Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2018-05-09T03:35:40Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2017-08-01 | |
| dc.description.abstract | Plantation crops are high valued commercial crops which are export oriented. In addition to commercial importance these also generate huge employment opportunities. In the present study a prudent attempt was made using data of thirty five years to understand the trend in area, production and productivity of major plantation crops such as arecanut, cashewnut and coconut of Dakshina Kannada. Further, an attempt was also made to forecast the area and production of these crops. The polynomial regression models were fitted to assess the trend in area and production. Based on the model adequacy linear model was the best fit for area and production of arecanut. For the productivity of arecanut none of the fitted models were significant indicating that there was non-significant change. Further, cubic and quartic models were found to be best fit for production and productivity of coconut and cashewnut respectively. Due to the presence of autocorrelation in the data, ARIMA and exponential smoothing methods were used for forecasting. The appropriate ARIMA models were identified after removing the outliers. Using 10 per cent of data as testing set, ARIMA (1,1,1) and ARIMA (0,1,0) were found to be the best fitted model based on RMSE and MAPE values to forecast area and production of arecanut. Whereas, ARIMA (0,1,1) found to be the most suitable model to forecast area and production of coconut. However, Damped trend model and Brown’s linear trend model were the best fitted model for predicting the area and production of cashewnut. | en_US |
| dc.identifier.other | Th-11732 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/5810045052 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
| dc.pages | 124 | en_US |
| dc.publisher | UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES GKVK, BENGALURU | en_US |
| dc.sub | Agricultural Statistics and Informatics | en_US |
| dc.subject | null | en_US |
| dc.theme | TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF SELECTED PLANTATION CROPS IN DAKSHINA | en_US |
| dc.these.type | M.Sc | en_US |
| dc.title | TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF SELECTED PLANTATION CROPS IN DAKSHINA KANNADA DISTRICT OF KARNATAKA | en_US |
| dc.type | Thesis | en_US |