TRENDS AND DIVERSIFICATION ON AREA AND PRODUCTION OF PRINCIPAL CROPS IN KARNATAKA: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
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Date
2021-12-23
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University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore
Abstract
In this study an attempt was made to assess the extent of agriculture diversificationof crops in different districts of Karnataka, using Herfindhal, Simpson and Entropy indices. Chamarajanagar district showed high diversification as compared to Yadgir and Bangalore urban districts showed very low diversification for the time period 1995-2007 and 2008- 2019. Further, to analyse the trends in area and production of selected principal crops (Paddy, Jowar, Bajra, Ragi, Tur, Groundnut, Sugarcane, Coconut, Wheat, Bengal gram, Cotton, Brinjal and Mango) of Karnataka using linear, cubic, exponential and log-logisticmodel. The best fit model was selected based on the minimum value of RMSE. Exponential model was found to be the best fit model for area and production for Bajra, Ragi, Tur, Groundnut, area and production had linear growth for Paddy and Sugarcane, Jowar had exponential growth over area and linear growth over production, Coconut showed cubic growth for area and linear growth for production for above crops during 1950 to 2019. During 1955-2019 linear model was found to be the best fit for both area and production
for Bengal gram, Cotton and Mango, cubic model was found to be the best fit for area andlinear model was found to be the best fit for the production of Wheat. Further, an attemptwas made to predict the production of selected crops using MLR and SMLR with area, rainfall, temperature (maximum, minimum) and relative humidity as independent variables. SMLR was found best based on least MAPE for most of the principal crops selected.