Sensitivity analysis for potato crop under different climate change scenarios in Haryana
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Date
2023-05
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CCSHAU, Hisar
Abstract
The experiment entitled, “Sensitivity analysis for potato crop under different climate change scenarios in Haryana” was conducted at Agricultural Meteorology Research Farm of CCS HAU, Hisar, during Rabi season of 2019-20 and 2020-21. The experiment was comprised of four planting dates (main plot treatments) viz. D1- 10th October, D2- 25th October, D3- 10th November and D4- 25th November and sub plot treatments comprising three different varieties viz. V1- Kufri Bahar, V2- Kufri Pushkar and V3- Kufri Lima during both the crop seasons. The experiment was laid out in factorial RBD design with four replications. Different agrometeorological indices viz. AGDD, AHTU, APTU, RUE and TUE accumulation was significantly higher under D2 sown crop at various phenophases. Among different sowing dates, D2- 25th Oct sown crop resulted in better overall growth as compared to D1, D3 and D4 sown crops in both the crop seasons. During crop season 2019-20, D4 sown crop was recorded highest tuber yield, whereas, in 2020-21, D2 sown crop. While, among varieties, Kufri Pushkar attained better growth and produced highest tuber yield with better yield attributes as compared to Kufri Bahar and Kufri Lima, in both the crop seasons. The micrometeorological parameters, among different planting dates were performed better in 25th October sown crop. Tuber yield was positively and significantly correlated with RHm, Rhe, BSH and RF, whereas, significantly and negatively correlated with Tmin. However, it was showed positive and significant correlation with LAI, total dry matter and absorbed PAR at tuber bulking stage. APSIM-Potato model was calibrated for 2019-20 and derived their genetic coefficients and further outputs were validated for second year (2020-21) experiments. The results revealed that simulated values of days taken for emergence, tuber initiation, physiological maturity, maximum LAI and tuber yield were in good agreement with observed values for Hisar conditions. The model under estimated the days taken for emergence whereas, over estimated the days taken for tuber initiation, physiological maturity, maximum LAI and tuber yield in majority of the treatments. The model has proved to be a suitable tool for optimization in potato management, prediction of phenology and estimating potential yield. Among different projected periods 2040s, 2060s 2080s and for all four projected climate change scenarios viz. RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5, the lowest maximum leaf area index and tuber yield was found under projected period 2080s in RCP 8.5 projected climate change scenario in D2 (25th Oct) sown crop and Kufri bahar variety.