IDENTIFICATION OF STABLE VARIETIES AND FORECASTING MODEL FOR ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON APPLE YIELD AND HARVEST LOSSES IN HIMACHAL PRADESH
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Date
2023-12-12
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UHF,NAUNI
Abstract
ABSTRACT
The present study has been carried out in high hill zone and cold dry zone of Himachal
Pradesh which was divided into three zones as per altitudinal range viz. Zone I (1000-1600 m
amsl), Zone II (1600-2200 m amsl) and Zone III (Above 2200 m amsl) to identify the stable
varieties, development of forecasting model to assess the impact of climate change and assessing the
harvest losses. Primary data was recorded for the metric characters to identify stable varieties for
response patterns to environmental change. Jeromine was found to be stable genotype for all the
metric characters studied using multi trait stability index. Pre harvest forecast models of apple yield
for the varieties studied were done using multiple linear regression. Secondary data for the period of
1990-2021was used to forecast apple yield on the basis of weather parameters indicating all the
parameters serve as best fit model using ARIMAX model. Vulnerability index for Lahaul Spiti district
had highest value (0.539) and Shimla district had the lowest value (0.448) among five selected
districts using Iyengar and Sudarshan method. The agricultural and occupational variables were the
major contributors towards the vulnerability over the period 2000-2021 for the selected districts. The
contribution of the climatic variables towards vulnerability was highest in Solan district (25.95 %) and
lowest in Shimla district (9.97 %), the contribution of demographic variables was also highest in
Solan (15.38 %) and lowest in Shimla district (7.63%). Furthermore the study explored total
production of apple per hectare for each zone which was found to be higher for zone II (1600-2200) m
amsl i.e. 64.35 q/ha with higher losses (10.58%) among all the zones considered for the present study.
Overall, this investigation provided valuable insights into apple genotype stability, yield forecasting,
vulnerability to climate change, and losses during harvesting and grading stages which offered useful
implications for apple growers to adapt with the climate change, polic