DEMAND FOR MILK AND MILK PRODUCTS IN KARNATAKA – STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
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Date
2007-08-24
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University of Agricultural Sciences GKVK, Bangalore
Abstract
Milk and Milk Products (MMP) are one of the agricultural
products, which are widely used. The Indian Dairy sector registered a
spectacular growth rate of five percent per annum during the last three
decades and as a result, India emerged as the world’s largest producer
of milk surpassing the milk production of the USA. The per capita
consumption ranges from 70 gms per day to around 250 gms per day
in the State. In the present study different statistical techniques were
used for estimating and projecting the demand for MMP in Karnataka
using different rounds of NSSO data.
The study attempts to estimate demand for MMP at
disaggregated level. The study utilizes both time series as well as cross
– sectional data to analyze the demand for MMP. Time series data had
used to estimate growth in demand while cross sectional data was
utilized to estimate demand elasticities using different functional forms
which in turn used to forecast the demand. The growth rate in per
capita consumption of MMP was estimated by fitting the exponential
function to the time series data. The results revealed that the growth
rate in per capita consumption of MMP over the years (1987 – 2003)
was found to be 21.6 percent in Rural Karnataka and 21.1 percent in
Urban Karnataka. Further, to estimate the demand elasticity for MMP,
the log – quadratic functional form was found to be the best fit for both
Rural and Urban Karnataka. The elasticity coefficient of MMP for Rural
and Urban Karnataka was found to be 1.06 and 1.03 respectively.
Based on the income elasticity coefficient, MMP could be grouped as
luxury product. In Rural Karnataka the income class group of Rs. 615
– 775 while in Urban Karnataka the income class group of Rs. 775 –
915 could spend more on MMP.
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