Time series analysis of milk yield data and climatic effect on milk yield
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Date
2021-06
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G.B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar - 263145 (Uttarakhand)
Abstract
The Present study is concerned with the time series analysis of milk yield data and climatic, breed and fodder effect on milk yield. Major findings of the study are:
1. The milk yield from Crossbred cows, Sahiwal cows and Murrah buffaloes follow Burr, Kumaraswamy and General Preto distribution respectively.
2. The Milk Yield data of Crossbred and Sahiwal cows and Murrah buffaloes exhibit downward trend and are non-stationary. The stationarity is achieved by trend and seasonal differencing of the data. The ARIMA (0,1,1) (1,1,1)12 for Crossbred cows, ARIMA (1,1,0) (0,1,1)12 for Sahiwal cows and ARIMA (0,1,1) (2,1,0)12 for Murrah buffaloes are found to be the best fit model. The forecasting results showed good agreement between observed and predicted values.
3. The effect of climatic factors on Milk Yield performance is estimated using Multiple Linear Regression analysis using the Best model variables selection method.
4. Breed of the dairy animals is found to have a significant effect on average milk production, whereas seasons do not have a significant effect on average milk production in dairy animals.
5. The average milk production of the crossbredsand Sahiwal cows and Murrah buffaloes was higher during the first season (January-April) when dairy animals were fed a diet containing green fodder consisting of barley (Jau) and barseem. The results of the study are expected to provide useful information to dairy researchers and statisticians for future policy planning in the study area.