Behaviour of Silk Cocoon Prices in Karnataka An Econometric Analysis
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Date
2011
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UAS, Dharwad
Abstract
Silk is the queen of textiles, have endearing qualities such as natural sheen,
light weight with high durability. India is the second largest producer of silk cocoon
next to China. Analysis of price and market arrivals over time is important for
formulating a sound price policy. Fluctuation in arrivals largely contributes to price
instability. Such an analysis is also use full to farmers in order to rear silkworm and
produce cocoon in the months in which they obtain best price advantages. Therefore
the study under taken to assess the dynamics of market arrivals and prices. The
monthly prices and arrivals of bivoltine and multivoltine silk cocoon in three major
Government silk cocoon markets (i.e Ramanagara, Shidlagatta and Chintamani) were
collected for period of 13 years (April 1998 to September 2010). An decreasing trend
in arrivals and increasing trend in prices was observed in the selected markets, but the
quantum of decrease in arrivals and increase in prices varied from one market to
another. The higher seasonal indices of prices were observed during May, during
which the arrivals were found to be low. In the case of Multivoltine and Bivoltine silk
cocoon arrivals and prices, the average duration of cycle was found to be once in 2.33
to 4.00 years and 3.00 to 3.33 years respectively. Response of silk cocoon arrivals on
prices in all the markets showed positive relationship, which implied that, as a arrivals
of silk cocoon increased the prices also to a small extent. ARIMA analysis was
employed to quantify the variation in prices and also forecast the prices for the next
24 months. The forecasted prices in all the markets showed an increasing value.
Analysis of zero order correlation showed that there is an existence of a strong
integration among all the selected markets. Finally it was forecasted prices which
serve as input in taking the marketing and production decisions.
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Agricultural Extension Education