GROWTH AND INSTABILITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTED VEGETABLES IN KARNATAKA
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Date
2019-08-26
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UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, GKVK BENGALURU
Abstract
The time series data of area, production and productivity of major vegetables viz., Potato,
Onion and Tomato from the period 1985-86 to 2017-18 (33 years) and minor vegetables
viz., Beans, Brinjal and Cabbage from the period 1993-94 to 2017-18 (25 years) were
studied. To assess the functional form of trend, models such as linear, quadratic, cubic,
logarithmic and exponential models were fitted and the best fitted model was chosen
based on R2 and RMSE values. Compound growth rate was calculated. Further, an
attempt has been made to study variability in production through instability index and
Hazell’s decomposition technique. Also, study has been carried to identify structural
change in area and productivity of selected vegetables. Various models were fitted for
area, production and productivity. In case of area, production and productivity cubic
model was found to perform better for tomato, potato and onion respectively. Linear and
quadratic model was found to perform better for potato and brinjal. Whereas exponential
model was found to perform better for onion and cabbage. There was an increasing
growth rate for area and production of selected vegetables, except tomato production,
which has a negative growth rate. With respect to productivity, all the crops showing
increasing growth rate except potato and tomato which showed decreasing growth rate.
The results showed that change in average sown area and yield were the major sources of
change in average production. The structural break in area and productivity of selected
vegetables was observed during the post 2000 periods.