Weather based rice yield prediction models for Karnal District of Haryana
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Date
2017
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CCSHAU
Abstract
The study carried out for Karnal district of Haryana was based on historical data for a period
of 35 years (1980-81 to 2015-16). Rice yield data were collected from Statistical Abstract of Haryana
and daily weather data were obtained from Central Soil Salinity Research Insitute (CSSRI), Karnal.
Stepwise multiple regression technique has been applied for period 1981-82 to 2012-13 with yield as
dependent variable and weather indices (artificial variables generated from weekly & fortnightly
weather values) as independent variables. Another three years data (2013-14 to 2015-16) have been
used for the validation of the models.
The models based on maximum temperature (22 & 24 weeks) and no. of rainy days (22 & 24
weeks) are comparable with each other on the basis of adjusted R2, therefore on the basis of root mean
square error the model based on no. of rainy days (24 weeks) having lowest RMSE (219.14) is chosen
among all models based on individual weather variables. The actual forecasts using model based on no.
of rainy days (24 weeks) for 2013-14 to 2015-16 years were 3207.11 kg/ha, 3318.09 kg/ha and 3322.61
kg/ha, respectively. The model based on joint effect of maximum temperature and relative humidity
morning (22 weeks) forecasts rice yield were very close to the actual yields (per cent relative deviation
ranging from 1.15 % to 7.6 %. The actual forecasts using maximum temperature and relative humidity
morning for 2013-14 to 2015-16 years were, 3244 kg/ha, 3168.03 kg/ha and 3215.34 kg/ha,
respectively.
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