SUPPLY-DEMAND PROJECTIONS FOR FOOD GRAINS IN KARNATAKA
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41547
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Abstract
The present study was undertaken to project the supply and
demand for foodgrains in Karnataka during XII and XIII five year plan
period by making use of district level data of 64th round consumer
expenditure survey published by National-Sample-Survey-Organization
during 2007-08 which facilitated to capture the regional variation in
composition of food basket while carrying out supply-demand
projections. The demand estimates are derived based on growth of
population, per capita income and income elasticity of demand. Log–
inverse, Double–log, Log-log–inverse, Linear, Quadratic and Semi-log
models were used for computing expenditure elasticities. Best functional
form was chosen based on high R2. Supply of foodgrains in the state was
projected by projecting area and productivity of major food crops using
time series data from 1990-91 to 2009-10. The log-linear regression
model was fitted to estimate area. Productivity of food crops were
projected considering the weather cycle of the state. Production was
obtained by multiplying the projected area by productivity. Supply
estimates were derived by adjusting the production to seed, feed and
other industrial requirements. The estimate of supply-demand gaps with
respect to rice, wheat, Jowar, ragi, gram, tur and total foodgrains was –
5.35, -9.15, 3.80, 3.48, 6.86, 0.35 and -3.87 lakh tons respectively by
2016 and by the end of 2021 it is expected to be -21.25, -12.87, 4.64,
3.02, 10.46, -0.78 and -38.14 lakh tons respectively. The study indicates
supply-demand gap for total foodgrains would be widening at the end of
XIII five year plan period.
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