COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF FORECASTING TECHNIQUES FOR ARRIVALS AND PRICES OF ONION IN HYDERABAD REGION
| dc.contributor.advisor | Supriya, K. | |
| dc.contributor.author | UDAY KUMAR REDDY, S. | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2024-05-04T15:33:44Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2024-05-04T15:33:44Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2023-03-20 | |
| dc.description.abstract | The edible bulb of the onion (Allium cepa), which is a member of the Liliaceae or Amaryllidaceae family, is widely grown around the world. Additionally, it is a biennial herbaceous vegetable crop and is one of the key vegetable crops that are eaten year-round in every home. China, India, and the United States of America collectively generate more than 50% of the world's total onion crop. Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat, and Rajasthan are the five states that produce the most onions in India. A study of agricultural commodity price patterns has a special significance in developing economies like India. When choosing when and where to sell the produce from their farms, farmers are guided by price levels. Price swings and agriculture are both well-known aspects of each. Considering the importance of onion in the economy and as a vital agricultural commodity, it may be significant to study this crop in detail to know the trend and variations in it. In the present study, the price and arrivals of Onions are examined in three different markets such as Gudimalkapur, Bowenpally, and Hyderabad markets undertaking three years of secondary daily data from 01-01-2019 to 31-12-2021 in Telangana State. The research is encapsulated with the primary objectives of fitting linear and non-linear time series models and comparing them by fitting different linear time series models like ARIMA, ARCH, and GARCH models with the non-linear time series model ANN. The adequacy of the models is checked through minimum RMSE, AIC, and MAPE values. By comparing the models from linear and non-linear time series models, the best model is selected based and forecasted values for January month. Comparing all three markets the average arrivals and price was higher in the Hyderabad market compared to Gudimalkapur and Bowenpally markets. The GARCH model among the linear time series models was found to have the best fit for onion price, and the ARCH model for onion arrival in Gudimalkapur market. Both in Bowenpally and Hyderabad markets for onion price ARIMA (1, 1, 2) model was found to be the best among all linear time series models fitted, and the ARCH model was best among onion arrivals with the least model adequacy values. Comparing the actual and predicted values of the best-fitted linear and non-linear time series models, shows that the ANN model predicted values were more accurate at predicting future prices and arrivals of onions in all the markets than the other models. This suggests that non-linear models performed better than linear models | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/5810208707 | |
| dc.language.iso | English | |
| dc.pages | 91 | |
| dc.publisher | PROFFESSOR JAYASHANKAR TELANGANA STATE AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY | |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | D10997 | |
| dc.sub | Statistics | |
| dc.theme | M. Sc. | |
| dc.these.type | M.Sc | |
| dc.title | COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF FORECASTING TECHNIQUES FOR ARRIVALS AND PRICES OF ONION IN HYDERABAD REGION | |
| dc.type | Thesis |