PRODUCTION AND EXPORT PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF AFGHANISTAN’S DRY FRUITS
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Date
2018-08-01
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University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore
Abstract
The growth in area, production and productivity of almonds, walnuts, grapes and
apricots of Afghanistan were computed with the help of (CAGR) analysis. Secondary
data for ten years (2007-16) on selected dry fruits production, harvesting area and
productivity in Afghanistan was collected from FAOSTAT. Harvesting areas for all
selected crops had increased during the mentioned period, while their production and
productivity registered a negative CAGR except grapes. The CAGR for grapes
production and productivity was (11.8%) and (7.1%) respectively. The marketing
channels of dry fruits was analyzed with the help of primary data from farmers and
intermediaries involved in marketing of dry fruits. Two separate marketing channels
prevailed in Afghanistan for dry fruits trade, viz., domestic and export trade channels.
Marketing costs and margins of dry fruits are calculated both in domestic trade and
export trade and the producer’s share in consumer Afs was the highest for almonds
(80.29%) followed by raisins in both marketing channels. The CAGR of the export of the
selected dry fruits from Afghanistan was calculated for the period of (2007-16). The
export growth rate for the walnuts, raisins and dry apricots registered a negative CAGR
although the CAGR of almonds (shelled) recorded a positive growth (0.71%). Markov
chain analysis on direction of dry fruits export from Afghanistan indicated that India and
Pakistan were highly stable markets with retention probability of 0.90*1, while Canada,
Germany, U.S.A. and other countries were highly unstable markets for Afghanistan’s dry
fruits.