STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF MAJOR CROPS IN VIJAYAPURA DISTRICT OF KARNATAKA
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University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore
Abstract
In this study, an effort was made to analyze the trends in area, production and productivity of major Pulse (Red gram), Cereal (Maize) and oilseed (Groundnut) for a period of 24 years from 1997 to 2020 in Vijayapura district of Karnataka. Linear, quadratic, cubic, exponential, log-logistic and GAM models were used for trend analysis. The best fitted model was selected based on the least MAPE value. GAM was the best fitted model for area of maize. Same model was the best fitted for production of red gram, maize and groundnut. Exponential and quadratic models were the best fit for area and productivity of red gram respectively. Cubic model was the best fit for productivity of maize and groundnut. For area of groundnut Log-logistic was the best fitted model. Further, an attempt was made to analyze the extent of agriculture diversification in the district was studied using Herfindahl, Simpson and Entropy indices by considering sixteen major crops. District showed greater degree of diversification under all three indices for entire study period from 2000-01 to 2019-20. Study was also conducted to forecast the production of major crops of Vijayapura district based on ARIMA model and the best fitted model. Increasing trend was noticed in red gram and slight decreasingtrend was noticed in maize and groundnut crops for next five years of production.