A study of southwest monsoon daily rainfall at Hisar – An information theory approach
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Date
2005
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Publisher
CCSHAU
Abstract
In this study, investigations have been carried out for south-west
monsoon daily rainfall at Hisar. The daily rainfall data for 79 years
(1925-2003) for the period from June to September have been split into
3 phases viz., 1925-1953, 1954-1978 and 1979-2003. These phasewise
data have been categorized into 5 states / categories accordingly as
non-rainy day (D), light rainy day (W1), moderate rainy day (W2), heavy
rainy day (W3) and very heavy rainy day (W4). The transitional
probabilities were estimated for all states / categories of occurrence by
using Markov chain of order one representing conditional dependence
on preceding one day only. The transitional probabilities were estimated
by maximum likelihood principle for all the three phases. By using the
knowledge of the Shannon’s entropy, the uncertainty (or disorderness)
of the transitional system of the south-west monsoon daily rainfall
characteristics (such as non-rainy day, light rains, moderate rains,
heavy rains and very-heavy rains) have been studied. The favourable or
unfavourable condition of different states during the south-west
monsoon period at Hisar have also been tested by the redundancy test.
It has been found that in the month of June and September the
redundancy is more as compared to July and August. For the whole
season i.e. June to September, the redundancy test confirms the
favourableness of Markov chain of order one at Hisar.