A STUDY ON PRICE BEHAVIOUR OF IMPORTANT PULSES IN ANDHRA PRADESH
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Date
2015
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ACHARYA N.G. RANGA AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY, GUNTUR
Abstract
The Present study entitled “A Study on Price Behaviour of Important Pulses in Andhra Pradesh” was undertaken to study the price trends of bengalgram, blackgram, greengram and redgram, price volatility and to estimate price forecasts.
The study was conducted in major pulse markets of Andhra Pradesh. Two markets were selected for each crop., bengalgram (Koilakuntla and Kurnool), blackgram (Tenali and Ponnur), greengram (Suryapeta and Thandur and redgram (Thandur and Kurnool) based on maximum arrivals. The data pertained to the period from 2000 to 2014.
Apart from using simple linear trend method, twelve months ratio to moving average method, ARIMA, ARCH and GARCH models were also used.
There was an increasing trend in the prices of bengalgram, blackgram, greengram and redgram in all the selected markets and were found to be highly significant at 1 per cent level of significance. The monthly increase in prices of bengalgram was found to be highest in Koilakuntla market (Rs.15.32/qtl)) whereas lowest in Kurnool market (Rs.12.28/qtl). In respect of blackgram monthly increase in prices was
highest in Ponnur market (Rs.23.2/ qtl), whereas it was lowest in Tenali market (Rs.22.13/qtl). In the case of greengram the annual increase in prices was lowest in Suryapeta market (Rs.22.86/qtl), whereas it was highest in Thandur market (Rs.25.31/qtl) and in case of redgram annual increase in prices was highest in Thandur market (Rs.20.01/qtl), whereas it was lowest in Kurnool market (Rs.14.36/qtl).
In all the selected markets, no seasonal variations in prices were observed. In Kurnool market the highest seasonal index for bengalgram was found in June (104.92) and lowest index was recorded in February (95.84). Blackgram recorded the highest seasonal index in Tenali market during the month of May (105.97) and lowest index was recorded in December (96.42). In the case of greengram, higher values were observed in Thandur market during the month of December (106.83) and lowest in May (93.19). In redgram the highest index was found in April (107.41) and lowest was in the month of October (94.4).
The cyclical indices in the selected markets showed that there were cycles with definite period in prices of Tenali and Ponnur markets of blackgram and in Suryapeta and Thandur markets of Greengram. In the case of bengalgram and redgram prices there were no cycles observed. The irregular fluctuations in prices did not exhibit any definite periodicity in any of the selected markets.
The results of ARIMA model for bengalgram indicated that the prices from January to March, 2015 would be ranging from Rs.2788 to Rs.2830 per quintal in Koilakuntla market and Rs.2565 to Rs.2583 per quintal in Kurnool market. For blackgram Rs.5966 to Rs.6009 per quintal in Tenali market and Rs.5986 to Rs.6037 per quintal in Ponnur market. For greengram Rs.6137 to Rs.3187 per quintal in Suryapeta market and Rs.6183 to Rs.6277 per quintal in Thandur market. In the case of redgram Rs.4933 to Rs.4969 per quintal in Thandur market and Rs.3680 to Rs.3813 per quintal in Kurnool market. When the forecasts were compared with the real time prices, it was observed that there was less deviation in the case of bengalgram, blackgram, greengram and redgram. With respect to price volatility, the results revealed that there was no volatility in prices of bengalgram, greengram, redgram in the selected markets and blackgram in Ponnur market. This indicated that the volatility shocks were not quite persistent in these markets. Blackgram prices in Tenali market were more volatile with a value equal to 1.02 as indicated by the sum of Alpha and Beta values.
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D5119
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