Statistical Evaluation of Milk and Milk Products of Tumkur Milk Union Limited (TUMUL)
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Date
2011
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Publisher
UAS, Dharwad
Abstract
Dairy development is a major component strategy to expand agricultural
output in India. Indian dairy industry has emerged as the largest dairy industry in the
world with milk production 112 million tonnes. Hence, in this context, it was
undertaken to analyse in detail about Tumkur milk union limited (TUMUL).
The study was carried out based on secondary data. Data was collected from
the union for fifteen years (1994-2009) with respect to milk procurement and milk
products production, in order to analyse the milk procurement and production of milk
products using polynomial functions, ARIMA, Exponential and Markov chain
analysis.
The different degree polynomials were tried in order to examine trends in
milk procurement and milk products production .Best models were selected based on
highest R2 and lowest RMSE values. In case of milk procurement, curd and peda
showed an increasing trend over the years. Whereas butter, ghee and cream showed
an increasing trend and trend with ups and downs over the years.
ARIMA and Exponential models were used to forecast the milk procurement
and milk products production of TUMUL. These models were showed an increasing
trend in all the milk products production and procurement of milk except in peda
production.
Markov-chain analysis was used for changing pattern of milk products
production in TUMUL was carried out using transition probabilities. Five products
butter, ghee, cream, curd and peda were considered in the transitional model. Results
showed that curd was one of the most stable products of TUMUL followed by cream,
curd, butter and ghee.
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Keywords
Agricultural Statistics