ASSESSMENT OF APPLE CROP VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN HIMACHAL PRADESH
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Date
2016
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Abstract
ABSTRACT
The present investigations entitled “Assessment of apple crop vulnerability to climate change in Himachal Pradesh” was conducted during the years 2014 and 2015 at selected altitudinal gradient viz. 1500-2000 m amsl (Kullu), 2000
2500 m amsl (Shimla) and 2500-3000 m amsl (Kinnaur) in Himachal Pradesh. The study aimed to assess the vulnerability of
apple crop to climate, trend of effective chill units as well as productivity trend of apple crop under selected altitudinal gradient.
For determining the vulnerability of apple crop to climate change data on various indicators such as exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity was collected from both primary (farmers’ perception on climate change and apple cultivation) as well as
secondary (meteorological and productivity data) sources and quantitative assessment of vulnerability was done by constructing ‘vulnerability index’. Utah model was used for determining the effective apple chill units trend. Correlation and regression
analysis between various weather parameters (temperature and rainfall) and apple productivity was done for the productivity
trend analysis. Weather based crop yield forecast model equation were developed and crop yield was predicted with maximum
accuracy for Kinnaur (80 %) followed by Kullu (71 %) and Shimla region (66 %). Various mitigation and adaptation strategies to
cope up apple cultivation with climate change at selected altitudinal gradient were developed. Climatic variability analysis indicated that annual average temperature showed an increasing trend at different altitudinal gradients as 0.071oC/year at 20002500 m amsl > 0.027oC/year at 1500-2000 m amsl > 0.001oC/year at 2500-3000 m amsl. The annual total rainfall has increased
by 0.614 mm per year at 2000-2500 m amsl and 0.525 mm per year at 2500-3000 m amsl whereas it decreased by 4.165 mm per
year at 1500-2000 m amsl. The apple productivity has increased at different altitudinal gradients as 2000-2500 m amsl > 2500
3000 m amsl > 1500-2000 m amsl. The effective apple chill units showed a decreasing trend at different altitudinal gradients as
11.4 chill units/ year at 2000-2500 m amsl > 9.892 chill units/ year at 2500-3000 m amsl > 6.385 chill units/year at1500-2000 m
amsl. The average number of chill units hours (CU hrs) available for the apple crop at different altitudinal gradients followed a
trend as 1065.95 CU hrs at 2500-3000 m amsl > 1010.65 CU hrs at 2000-2500 m amsl > 456.81 CU hrs at 1500-2000 m amsl.
Sensitivity analysis of apple productivity with annual maximum temperature showed maximum negative rate of the order 4.83
tones/year at 1500-2000 m amsl followed by 1.34 tones/year at 2000-2500 m amsl and 0.68 tones/ year at 2000-2500. On the
basis of vulnerability index altitude gradient 1500-2000 m amsl (Kullu) obtained rank-I and is highly vulnerable followed by
altitude gradient 2000-2500 m amsl ( rank-II) and altitudinal gradient 2500-3000 m amsl (Kinnaur) (rank-III) is least vulnerable
for apple cultivation. The majority (28.78 %) of farmers at an altitude gradient 1500-2000 (Kullu) m amsl have shifted for the
cultivation of alternate crops like pomegranate, kiwi, vegetables etc. whereas 72.83 per cent preferred low chill apple varieties for
future plantation. Hence to cope up apple cultivation with changing climatic conditions there is a need to adopt suggested
mitigation and adaptation strategies at all the three selected altitudinal gradients in Himachal Pradesh
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Keywords
apples, climate, precipitation, crops, fruits, climatic change, productivity, yields, seasons, purification, apple crop vulnerability,climate change,HP