Growth, instability and determinants of production of major livestock products in India
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Date
2022-09
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G.B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar, District Udham Singh Nagar, Uttarakhand. PIN - 263145
Abstract
With growing population, urbanization, increasing income and rising nutritional awareness, India is experiencing its ‘livestock revolution’. Despite being world’s largest milk producer and third largest hen egg producer, demand for livestock products in India is estimated to outpace its supply, causing price instability and exposing low-income households to financial and nutritional insecurities. Also a considerable gap in the present and ideal state of determinants of livestock production is seen within the country. Therefore, this study has been conducted with the aim of i) examining status, ii) estimating growth and instability, and iii) assessing determinants of production and developing models based on them. Descriptive statistics, CAGR, CDVI and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) are employed. ANN is selected over regression due to its capability of handling vast heterogeneous datasets and mapping both linear and nonlinear relationships between variables. Determinants such as number and average yields of in-milk milch animals; number of animals slaughtered; number of layers; area under pastures, fodder crops, cereals and millets; artificial inseminations conducted; number of veterinary institutions; value of output; per-capita net state domestic product etc. are selected for developing the production models. The study has been conducted for all twenty-nine states of India, and utilizes secondary data for the period ranging from 2000-01 to 2019-20. Results reveal considerable inter-state variations in production, growth and instability. Except duck egg, production from all other species has increased in India. Highest increments have been observed in crossbred cow milk, sheep meat and improved fowl egg. Species-wise breakup showed that during 2019, buffaloes, poultry and improved fowl were the leading milk, meat and egg producing species in the country. However, animal number was seen to exert greater influence on production rather than yield. Though meat and egg recorded higher compound annual growths than milk, more states have been noted deficient in their per-capita availabilities as compared to milk. Pleasantly at country level, low instabilities in milk, meat and egg production are observed. RMSE, MAPE, MAD and R2 values of developed production models point towards their good prediction accuracy and ability to explain significant variation in production. States with high prospect for A2 milk production and meat production from buffalo, sheep and pig were identified in the study so as to facilitate targeted production schemes. States showing low or medium instability in production should strengthen their forward linkages, while those exhibiting high instability need to plug gaps in their backward linkages. Overall, policies focused on fodder production, yield improvement, strengthening of veterinary and technological infrastructure, and provision of remunerative producer prices are must for boosting livestock production in the country