DYNAMICS OF PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION AND MARKET INTEGRATION OF MAJOR PULSES IN INDIA
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Date
2014
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DIVISION OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS INDIAN AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE NEW DELHI
Abstract
India is the major producer and consumer of pulses in the world, both in terms
of quantum and variety. In India, a large proportion of population is vegetarian and
pulses form the main source of vegetable proteins for them. Although, India’s pulse
production accounts for about 25 and 33 per cent of global production and area,
respectively, yields remain lower than in many other countries of the world. The
country still it has to go a long way to meet the minimum per capita requirement of 80
grams per day recommened by the World Health Organisation. Further, per capita per
day availability of pulses continues to decline, owing to increasing population and per
capita income. Simultaneously, stagnation in the pulses productivity and acreage pose
a threat for further decline in the per capita availability of pulses. In this study, an
attempt was made to examine the performance of the pulses sector, to identify the
underlying factors affecting pulses supply response and to assess the integration of
major pulses markets. This thesis contribution to the pulses economic literature is both
methodological and empirical.
Many of the past supply response studies are based on traditional econometric
techniques (classic linear regression) and the Nerlovian framework. Results of
traditional econometric techniques are reliable when the time series data are stationary.
However, there can be a possibility that some macroeconomic time series data are non
stationary and the results and conclusions drawn from using those techniques have the
risk of invalidity. This study specifically attempts to quantify the supply response,
when the variables in the data set expressed in levels are neither stationary nor nonstationary.
Findings of this study suggest that stagnation in pulses production and
acreage may be attributed to the widening revenue gap between pulses and their
respective competing crops.
The spatial market integration among the important wholesale markets was
examined to assess the pulses market efficiency. The distinguished feature of this
paper is the application of the ARDL model to assess cointegration when a majority of
Indian pulse markets price series are stationary and non-stationary which excludes the
use of Johansen and Engle Granger cointegration techniques. Findings of the study
suggest that Indian pulse markets are transmitting part of the shocks they receive,
implying that Indian pulse markets are interlinked but not perfectly integrated.
Description
t-9024
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