MODEL BASED STATISTICAL EVALUATION OF MAJOR CEREALS PRODUCED IN KARNATAKA STATE
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Date
2021-12-31, 2021-12-31, 2021-12-31
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University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore
University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore
University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore
University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore
University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore
Abstract
An attempt has been made to study the trend in area, production and productivity of major cereals (rice, maize, jowar, ragi and bajra) grown in Karnataka state. For this study 22 years secondary data were collected on area, production and productivity for the
selected cereals. In order to study the temporal variation, linear, quadratic, cubic, logarithmic, inverse, compound, power, logistic, log-logistic and exponential models were utilized. An appropriate model chosen based on the model adequacy criteria R2, AIC, RMSE and MAPE. Log-logistic model was the best fit model in majority of situation for rice and maize which indicated a steady increase during initial periods and reaching stagnation, whereas linear and exponential model was best fit for most of the characteristic in case of jowar, ragi and bajra indicating steady increase or decreasing trend. Rice and maize were mainly grown in kharif season so same trend was observed for pooled data over all the season whereas in case of jowar and ragi were mainly grown in rabi season so same was depicted in pooled data. Further the spatial variations in area, production and productivity across districts during the study period were analysed by computing Coefficient of variation (CV%), Coppockās instability index (CII%) and Cuddy Della Valle index (CDI%). It was observed that instability was more for production of all the cereals
than area and productivity in their respective districts. Larger instability was seen in period III for all the cereals except bajra which showed highest stability during period II.
An attempt has been made to study the trend in area, production and productivity of major cereals (rice, maize, jowar, ragi and bajra) grown in Karnataka state. For this study 22 years secondary data were collected on area, production and productivity for the selected cereals. In order to study the temporal variation, linear, quadratic, cubic, logarithmic, inverse, compound, power, logistic, log-logistic and exponential models were utilized. An appropriate model chosen based on the model adequacy criteria R2, AIC, RMSE and MAPE. Log-logistic model was the best fit model in majority of situation for rice and maize which indicated a steady increase during initial periods and reaching stagnation, whereas linear and exponential model was best fit for most of the characteristic in case of jowar, ragi and bajra indicating steady increase or decreasing trend. Rice and maize were mainly grown in kharif season so same trend was observed for pooled data over all the season whereas in case of jowar and ragi were mainly grown in rabi season so same was depicted in pooled data. Further the spatial variations in area, production and productivity across districts during the study period were analysed by computing Coefficient of variation (CV%), Coppockās instability index (CII%) and Cuddy Della Valle index (CDI%). It was observed that instability was more for production of all the cereals than area and productivity in their respective districts. Larger instability was seen in period III for all the cereals except bajra which showed highest stability during period II.
An attempt has been made to study the trend in area, production and productivity of major cereals (rice, maize, jowar, ragi and bajra) grown in Karnataka state. For this study 22 years secondary data were collected on area, production and productivity for the selected cereals. In order to study the temporal variation, linear, quadratic, cubic, logarithmic, inverse, compound, power, logistic, log-logistic and exponential models were utilized. An appropriate model chosen based on the model adequacy criteria R2, AIC, RMSE and MAPE. Log-logistic model was the best fit model in majority of situation for rice and maize which indicated a steady increase during initial periods and reaching stagnation, whereas linear and exponential model was best fit for most of the characteristic in case of jowar, ragi and bajra indicating steady increase or decreasing trend. Rice and maize were mainly grown in kharif season so same trend was observed for pooled data over all the season whereas in case of jowar and ragi were mainly grown in rabi season so same was depicted in pooled data. Further the spatial variations in area, production and productivity across districts during the study period were analysed by computing Coefficient of variation (CV%), Coppockās instability index (CII%) and Cuddy Della Valle index (CDI%). It was observed that instability was more for production of all the cereals than area and productivity in their respective districts. Larger instability was seen in period III for all the cereals except bajra which showed highest stability during period II.
An attempt has been made to study the trend in area, production and productivity of major cereals (rice, maize, jowar, ragi and bajra) grown in Karnataka state. For this study 22 years secondary data were collected on area, production and productivity for the selected cereals. In order to study the temporal variation, linear, quadratic, cubic, logarithmic, inverse, compound, power, logistic, log-logistic and exponential models were utilized. An appropriate model chosen based on the model adequacy criteria R2, AIC, RMSE and MAPE. Log-logistic model was the best fit model in majority of situation for rice and maize which indicated a steady increase during initial periods and reaching stagnation, whereas linear and exponential model was best fit for most of the characteristic in case of jowar, ragi and bajra indicating steady increase or decreasing trend. Rice and maize were mainly grown in kharif season so same trend was observed for pooled data over all the season whereas in case of jowar and ragi were mainly grown in rabi season so same was depicted in pooled data. Further the spatial variations in area, production and productivity across districts during the study period were analysed by computing Coefficient of variation (CV%), Coppockās instability index (CII%) and Cuddy Della Valle index (CDI%). It was observed that instability was more for production of all the cereals than area and productivity in their respective districts. Larger instability was seen in period III for all the cereals except bajra which showed highest stability during period II.
An attempt has been made to study the trend in area, production and productivity of major cereals (rice, maize, jowar, ragi and bajra) grown in Karnataka state. For this study 22 years secondary data were collected on area, production and productivity for the selected cereals. In order to study the temporal variation, linear, quadratic, cubic, logarithmic, inverse, compound, power, logistic, log-logistic and exponential models were utilized. An appropriate model chosen based on the model adequacy criteria R2, AIC, RMSE and MAPE. Log-logistic model was the best fit model in majority of situation for rice and maize which indicated a steady increase during initial periods and reaching stagnation, whereas linear and exponential model was best fit for most of the characteristic in case of jowar, ragi and bajra indicating steady increase or decreasing trend. Rice and maize were mainly grown in kharif season so same trend was observed for pooled data over all the season whereas in case of jowar and ragi were mainly grown in rabi season so same was depicted in pooled data. Further the spatial variations in area, production and productivity across districts during the study period were analysed by computing Coefficient of variation (CV%), Coppockās instability index (CII%) and Cuddy Della Valle index (CDI%). It was observed that instability was more for production of all the cereals than area and productivity in their respective districts. Larger instability was seen in period III for all the cereals except bajra which showed highest stability during period II.