STATISTICAL EVALUATION OF CLIMATE ON SILK COCOON PRODUCTION IN KARNATAKA
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Date
2018-08-01
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University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore
Abstract
Sericulture is one of the important allied agricultural activities which provides subsidiary income to the farmers and plays an important role in poverty alleviation. Climate is one of the main determinants of silk cocoon production. Even slight variation in climatic factors will adversely affects silk worm growth and interm affects cocoon production. In the present study the monthly data of silk cocoon production and climatic parameters from 2012-13 to 2016-17 were obtained from the six selected locations viz., Kolar, Chikkaballapur, Ramanagara, Chamarajanagara, Mandya and Mysuru districts of Karnataka, in order to study the impact of climatic changes on silk cocoon production.
To study the variation in climate change linear trend analysis was done and results indicated that temperature showed a declining trend where as rainfall and relative humidity had Increasing trends which were statistically significant in all six locations under study. Polynomial models were used to ascertain trends in silk cocoon production. The quadratic model was found to be the best fit with moderate R2 values for both multivoltine and bivoltine race cocoon production. Multiple linear regression
analysis was carried out to assess impact of climate on silk cocoon production separately for multivoltine and bivoltine race. The results revealed that climatic parameters had a significant influence on silk cocoon production. Further, in the multiple regression model the variables rainfall, temperature and relative humidity had a negative impact on cocoon production, which indicates that any changes in
values of these variables will have adverse effect on cocoon production.