Delineating thermal and land suitability zones of cotton under changing climatic conditions in Punjab using geospatial techniques
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Date
2022
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Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana
Abstract
Rise in temperature particularly in lower latitudes, could have a negative effect on cotton growth, development and yield. To evaluate this, a present study has been carried out at Regional Research Station, Bathinda of Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, comprising four sowing dates (April 01, April 20, May 10 and May 30) and two cultivars (non-Bt: F 2228 and Bt: RCH 773) in factorial randomized complete block design during 2020 and 2021. Using phenological calendar from above experiment, spatio temporal analysis of accumulated growing degree days and thermal growing period was carried out for the past (1990-2020) and future scenarios (2021-2055). Results revealed that growing degree days showed a positive trend @ 0.11-17.73°C day/year for the past (significant 5%) and @ 1.70-2.39°C day/year under RCP 2.6 to 7.20-26.38°C day/year under RCP 8.5 (significant 0.1%) for the future scenarios. Declining trend was observed for the thermal growing period @ 0.04-2.44 days/year for the past and @ 0.09-0.41 days/year under RCP 2.6 and @ 0.36-1.07 days/year under RCP 8.5 for future climate. Results of the crop simulation studies showed that future climate will increase the days taken to anthesis by 3.53% and 9.57%, maturity period by 0.30% and 3.63% and decrease the seed cotton yield by 13.75% and 34.23% under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 in contrast to baseline period on account of elevated temperature and precipitation. Future land suitability analysis showed that there will be decrease in area under highly suitable zone in SBS Nagar (14.21%) and not suitable zone in Ferozepur (9.07%) and Bathinda (10.77%) districts. Results also showed that there will be increase in the area under suitable zones in SBS Nagar (10.66%) and Bathinda (10.8%) and in Ferozepur (7.51%) under the marginally suitable zone owing to increase in the temperature and rainfall of these regions.
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Varinderjit Kaur (2022). Delineating thermal and land suitability zones of cotton under changing climatic conditions in Punjab using geospatial techniques (Unpublished Ph.D. Dissertation). Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, Punjab, India.