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Dr. Rajendra Prasad Central Agricultural University, Pusa

In the imperial Gazetteer of India 1878, Pusa was recorded as a government estate of about 1350 acres in Darbhanba. It was acquired by East India Company for running a stud farm to supply better breed of horses mainly for the army. Frequent incidence of glanders disease (swelling of glands), mostly affecting the valuable imported bloodstock made the civil veterinary department to shift the entire stock out of Pusa. A British tobacco concern Beg Sutherland & co. got the estate on lease but it also left in 1897 abandoning the government estate of Pusa. Lord Mayo, The Viceroy and Governor General, had been repeatedly trying to get through his proposal for setting up a directorate general of Agriculture that would take care of the soil and its productivity, formulate newer techniques of cultivation, improve the quality of seeds and livestock and also arrange for imparting agricultural education. The government of India had invited a British expert. Dr. J. A. Voelcker who had submitted as report on the development of Indian agriculture. As a follow-up action, three experts in different fields were appointed for the first time during 1885 to 1895 namely, agricultural chemist (Dr. J. W. Leafer), cryptogamic botanist (Dr. R. A. Butler) and entomologist (Dr. H. Maxwell Lefroy) with headquarters at Dehradun (U.P.) in the forest Research Institute complex. Surprisingly, until now Pusa, which was destined to become the centre of agricultural revolution in the country, was lying as before an abandoned government estate. In 1898. Lord Curzon took over as the viceroy. A widely traveled person and an administrator, he salvaged out the earlier proposal and got London’s approval for the appointment of the inspector General of Agriculture to which the first incumbent Mr. J. Mollison (Dy. Director of Agriculture, Bombay) joined in 1901 with headquarters at Nagpur The then government of Bengal had mooted in 1902 a proposal to the centre for setting up a model cattle farm for improving the dilapidated condition of the livestock at Pusa estate where plenty of land, water and feed would be available, and with Mr. Mollison’s support this was accepted in principle. Around Pusa, there were many British planters and also an indigo research centre Dalsing Sarai (near Pusa). Mr. Mollison’s visits to this mini British kingdom and his strong recommendations. In favour of Pusa as the most ideal place for the Bengal government project obviously caught the attention for the viceroy.

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Author: Kumar, Sohan × Start date: 2020 ×
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    ThesisItemOpen Access
    Forecasting onion price for Patna district using ANN and ARIMA models
    (DRPCAU, Pusa, 2020) Kumar, Sohan; Kumar, Mahesh
    The present study entitled “FORECASTING ONION PRICE FOR PATNA DISTRICT USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK (ANN) AND AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) MODELS” is based on ANNs and ARIMA models for forecasting onion price in Patna district of Bihar. The secondary data of Onion price were collected for 2002 to 2015 from Agriculture marketing (agmarknet.gov.in). The data from 2002 to 2015 were used for analysis of forecasting onion price and validity tests were also calculated. ANNs model has used to forecast the onion price in Patna district of Bihar for period January to December for year 2015. And it is found that the per cent forecast error is less while using ANNs model With the help of above facts, it was found that the ARIMA (1,0,0) model is best fitted among all the models namely ARIMA (0, 0, 0), ARIMA (0,0,1), ARIMA (0,1,1), ARIMA (0,1,2), ARIMA (1,0,1), ARIMA (1,0,2), ARIMA (2,0,0), ARIMA (2,0,1), ARIMA (2,1,0), ARIMA (2,1,1), ARIMA (2,1,2).The parameters of all these models were computed and tested for their significance. Various statistics were also computed for selecting the adequate and parsimonious model i.e., t-test and chi-square test. This is supported by low value of MAPE, MAE, RMSE, BIC for forecasting of onion price in Patna district of Bihar. Forecasting of onion price for the next four years was employed based on ANNs and ARIMA model. The results showed that there was a lot of fluctuation in onion price.