Forecasting onion price for Patna district using ANN and ARIMA models
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Date
2020
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DRPCAU, Pusa
Abstract
The present study entitled “FORECASTING ONION PRICE FOR PATNA DISTRICT USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK (ANN) AND AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) MODELS” is based on ANNs and ARIMA models for forecasting onion price in Patna district of Bihar. The secondary data of Onion price were collected for 2002 to 2015 from Agriculture marketing (agmarknet.gov.in). The data from 2002 to 2015 were used for analysis of forecasting onion price and validity tests were also calculated.
ANNs model has used to forecast the onion price in Patna district of Bihar for period January to December for year 2015. And it is found that the per cent forecast error is less while using ANNs model
With the help of above facts, it was found that the ARIMA (1,0,0) model is best fitted among all the models namely ARIMA (0, 0, 0), ARIMA (0,0,1), ARIMA (0,1,1), ARIMA (0,1,2), ARIMA (1,0,1), ARIMA (1,0,2), ARIMA (2,0,0), ARIMA (2,0,1), ARIMA (2,1,0), ARIMA (2,1,1), ARIMA (2,1,2).The parameters of all these models were computed and tested for their significance. Various statistics were also computed for selecting the adequate and parsimonious model i.e., t-test and chi-square test. This is supported by low value of MAPE, MAE, RMSE, BIC for forecasting of onion price in Patna district of Bihar. Forecasting of onion price for the next four years was employed based on ANNs and ARIMA model. The results showed that there was a lot of fluctuation in onion price.