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Dr. Rajendra Prasad Central Agricultural University, Pusa

In the imperial Gazetteer of India 1878, Pusa was recorded as a government estate of about 1350 acres in Darbhanba. It was acquired by East India Company for running a stud farm to supply better breed of horses mainly for the army. Frequent incidence of glanders disease (swelling of glands), mostly affecting the valuable imported bloodstock made the civil veterinary department to shift the entire stock out of Pusa. A British tobacco concern Beg Sutherland & co. got the estate on lease but it also left in 1897 abandoning the government estate of Pusa. Lord Mayo, The Viceroy and Governor General, had been repeatedly trying to get through his proposal for setting up a directorate general of Agriculture that would take care of the soil and its productivity, formulate newer techniques of cultivation, improve the quality of seeds and livestock and also arrange for imparting agricultural education. The government of India had invited a British expert. Dr. J. A. Voelcker who had submitted as report on the development of Indian agriculture. As a follow-up action, three experts in different fields were appointed for the first time during 1885 to 1895 namely, agricultural chemist (Dr. J. W. Leafer), cryptogamic botanist (Dr. R. A. Butler) and entomologist (Dr. H. Maxwell Lefroy) with headquarters at Dehradun (U.P.) in the forest Research Institute complex. Surprisingly, until now Pusa, which was destined to become the centre of agricultural revolution in the country, was lying as before an abandoned government estate. In 1898. Lord Curzon took over as the viceroy. A widely traveled person and an administrator, he salvaged out the earlier proposal and got London’s approval for the appointment of the inspector General of Agriculture to which the first incumbent Mr. J. Mollison (Dy. Director of Agriculture, Bombay) joined in 1901 with headquarters at Nagpur The then government of Bengal had mooted in 1902 a proposal to the centre for setting up a model cattle farm for improving the dilapidated condition of the livestock at Pusa estate where plenty of land, water and feed would be available, and with Mr. Mollison’s support this was accepted in principle. Around Pusa, there were many British planters and also an indigo research centre Dalsing Sarai (near Pusa). Mr. Mollison’s visits to this mini British kingdom and his strong recommendations. In favour of Pusa as the most ideal place for the Bengal government project obviously caught the attention for the viceroy.

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Subject: Agricultural Statistics and Informatics × Author: S, EZHILMATHI × End date: 2021 × Start date: 2020 ×
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    ThesisItemOpen Access
    TREND OF GROUNDNUT AREA, PRODUCTION, YIELD IN BIHAR AND TAMIL NADU ALONG WITH ITS YIELD FORECASTING THROUGH AUTO-REGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) MODELS
    (DRPCAU, PUSA, 2021) S, EZHILMATHI; Kumar, Mahesh
    The present study entitled “Trend of groundnut area, production, yield in Bihar and Tamil Nadu along with its yield forecasting through Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models” is based on the growth trends and ARIMA models for forecasting groundnut yield in Bihar and Tamil Nadu. The secondary data on groundnut area, production and yield were collected from the year 1980 to 2018 from the authenticated portals like Directorate of Groundnut Research, Directorate of Oilseeds Development and India Agri Stat. The data from 1980 to 2016 were used for analysis of forecasting groundnut yield and the data for 2017 to 2018 were kept for model evaluation. Trend analysis and validity tests were also calculated. With the help of above facts, it was found that the ARIMA (1,0,1) model is best fitted for Bihar among all the models namely ARIMA (0,1,1), ARIMA (0,1,2), ARIMA (0,0,1), ARIMA (1,0,0), ARIMA (1,1,1), ARIMA (2,0,0) and ARIMA (2,0,1). The ARIMA (1,0,0) model is best fitted for forecasting of groundnut yield in Tamil Nadu among all the other models namely ARIMA (0,0,1), ARIMA (1,0,1), ARIMA (0,1,1), ARIMA (1,1,1), ARIMA (0,1,2), ARIMA (2,0,0) and ARIMA (2,0,1). The parameters of all these models were computed and tested for their significance. Various statistics were also computed for selecting the adequate and parsimonious model i.e., t-test and chi-square test. This is supported by low values of MAPE, MAE, RMSE and BIC for forecasting of groundnut yield in Bihar and Tamil Nadu. Forecasting of groundnut yield for the upcoming two years was done using ARIMA models. The results showed that there was a steady increase in the yield of groundnut in Bihar as well as Tamil Nadu. In this study, lower and upper limits of the forecasted yield were also calculated with 95% of confidence interval. The forecasts done five years period ahead for the time series data of yield of groundnut by using the best fitted ARIMA (1, 0, 1) and ARIMA (1, 0, 0) models, respectively for Bihar and Tamil Nadu. Further study was done for trend analysis and it was found that the trend is likely to be in decreasing order for groundnut area and production of both the states. The trend of groundnut yield in Bihar is stable whereas it is in increasing order in case of Tamil Nadu. For the study of inter-state disparities, Compound Annual Growth Rates were also calculated and it was found that all are highly significant.