TREND OF GROUNDNUT AREA, PRODUCTION, YIELD IN BIHAR AND TAMIL NADU ALONG WITH ITS YIELD FORECASTING THROUGH AUTO-REGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) MODELS
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Date
2021
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DRPCAU, PUSA
Abstract
The present study entitled “Trend of groundnut area, production, yield in Bihar and Tamil Nadu along with its yield forecasting through Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models” is based on the growth trends and ARIMA models for forecasting groundnut yield in Bihar and Tamil Nadu. The secondary data on groundnut area, production and yield were collected from the year 1980 to 2018 from the authenticated portals like Directorate of Groundnut Research, Directorate of Oilseeds Development and India Agri Stat. The data from 1980 to 2016 were used for analysis of forecasting groundnut yield and the data for 2017 to 2018 were kept for model evaluation. Trend analysis and validity tests were also calculated.
With the help of above facts, it was found that the ARIMA (1,0,1) model is best fitted for Bihar among all the models namely ARIMA (0,1,1), ARIMA (0,1,2), ARIMA (0,0,1), ARIMA (1,0,0), ARIMA (1,1,1), ARIMA (2,0,0) and ARIMA (2,0,1). The ARIMA (1,0,0) model is best fitted for forecasting of groundnut yield in Tamil Nadu among all the other models namely ARIMA (0,0,1), ARIMA (1,0,1), ARIMA (0,1,1), ARIMA (1,1,1), ARIMA (0,1,2), ARIMA (2,0,0) and ARIMA (2,0,1). The parameters of all these models were computed and tested for their significance. Various statistics were also computed for selecting the adequate and parsimonious model i.e., t-test and chi-square test. This is supported by low values of MAPE, MAE, RMSE and BIC for forecasting of groundnut yield in Bihar and Tamil Nadu. Forecasting of groundnut yield for the upcoming two years was done using ARIMA models. The results showed that there was a steady increase in the yield of groundnut in Bihar as well as Tamil Nadu.
In this study, lower and upper limits of the forecasted yield were also calculated with 95% of confidence interval. The forecasts done five years period ahead for the time series data of yield of groundnut by using the best fitted ARIMA (1, 0, 1) and ARIMA (1, 0, 0) models, respectively for Bihar and Tamil Nadu.
Further study was done for trend analysis and it was found that the trend is likely to be in decreasing order for groundnut area and production of both the states. The trend of groundnut yield in Bihar is stable whereas it is in increasing order in case of Tamil Nadu. For the study of inter-state disparities, Compound Annual Growth Rates were also calculated and it was found that all are highly significant.